Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd48f373dc08e832c258e188de6fc3bd064515d9f294d95e9b7b6fb78ff6cb2fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,214$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 2c | 980.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 918.35$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.78 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 21c | 727.93$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 80c | 410.97$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 31c | 352.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…02febacked Yes | 19c | 350.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 21c | 336.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 30c | 330.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 27c | 300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 293$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 32c | 255.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 243$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 211.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 73c | 209.82$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 200.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 197$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 52c | 182.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 165.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 23c | 163.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 162.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 156.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 145.72$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 32c | 132.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 132.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 119$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 28c | 113.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 106.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 99.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…89d6backed Yes | 27c | 97.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 97.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 91.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 81.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 19c | 80.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 14c | 79.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 78.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 70.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 67.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 21c | 65.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 73c | 64.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 31c | 64.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 60.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 60.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 56.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 73c | 54.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 39c | 54.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 53.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0958backed Yes | 24c | 49.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 46.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 54c | 46.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 45.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 30c | 43.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d0…d84bbacked Yes | 39c | 41.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 34c | 30.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 57c | 21.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.