TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,076 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb0d6…7475backed No9c1,303$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.981,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c746.66$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.072,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes78c739.19$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.183,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No14c504.72$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.761820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed No8c476.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7517859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf75f…b458backed Yes76c461.2$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.144452.3%23 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+12.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes39c459.38$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.651,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No30c396.49$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.535,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd39…5f76backed No50c386.35$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.039569.5%66 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8438…02febacked Yes35c311.64$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.29922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13849622.2%110 W · 386 L+26.1wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x688c…cc5bbacked Yes60c282.76$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.83313.2%1 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-94.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes38c265.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.6940237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No4c263$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0496620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c243$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.595,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c233.95$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.948,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d15…78dbbacked No6c219.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes31c171.1$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.062532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No40c169$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.364,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c158.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.235,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c145.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.334,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c141.17$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.449,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa30f…4da6backed Yes28c131.44$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1221132.2%68 W · 143 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…8ca0backed Yes78c130$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.287969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked No40c125.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No50c124.12$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.577,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No44c113.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes59c105.85$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7540132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc950…0e82backed Yes35c105.76$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+130.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No24c104.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c103$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.523,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c99.15$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.813,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes32c95.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.111,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No23c95.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.214,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No72c89.24$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6775546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes61c83.38$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.851,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No39c81.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c80.74$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.286,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes58c78.35$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8542820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No19c75.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.031,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes33c75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.254,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes33c74.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8728441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No29c72.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6361752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c72.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.344,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes37c68.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.142148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No44c68.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.642,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c67.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes35c65.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2215868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c64.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.022,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes62c64.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.246,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No41c61.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.153951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7795…08dfbacked No44c60.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.62544%11 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes35c59.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.65455.6%30 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked No41c59.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.327855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c58.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.823246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes52c57.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.583333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No28c53.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1529751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No32c53.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.832,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4255…2794backed No38c52.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd834…1d87backed Yes39c52.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.17133.8%24 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No38c51.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.572,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3213845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3626933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.82,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ad…4171backed Yes35c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.52250%11 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No64c49.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9943663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb5…0f28backed Yes67c48.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.091747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes31c42.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1243848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.816935.5%60 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c39.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.243,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…d114backed No72c38.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7619148.7%93 W · 98 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No39c38.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7353258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No63c37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4616641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes43c30.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2334628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c25.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.777,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No65c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes78c24.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5312052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1317460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x997a…4cbebacked No67c19.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1819565.6%128 W · 67 L-0.8wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes61c19.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5282268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No66c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.632,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No66c17.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No70c14.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.031,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.