Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x660653fd2ae8afa8ee7a0897e738241c4f5cd84ae880cde144a18cab5452df10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 9c | 1,303$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 746.66$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 739.19$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 14c | 504.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 8c | 476.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 76c | 461.2$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 459.38$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.65 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 396.49$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 50c | 386.35$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.03 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…02febacked Yes | 35c | 311.64$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x688c…cc5bbacked Yes | 60c | 282.76$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -94.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 38c | 265.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.69 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 4c | 263$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 243$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 233.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…78dbbacked No | 6c | 219.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 31c | 171.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 169$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 158.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 145.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 141.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 28c | 131.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 78c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 40c | 125.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 124.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 59c | 105.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…0e82backed Yes | 35c | 105.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 104.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 99.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 95.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 95.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 89.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 83.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 80.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 58c | 78.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 19c | 75.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 33c | 74.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 29c | 72.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 72.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 68.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 68.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 67.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 35c | 65.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 64.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 64.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 41c | 61.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 44c | 60.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 35c | 59.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 41c | 59.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 58.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 52c | 57.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 28c | 53.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 53.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…2794backed No | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 39c | 52.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 51.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed Yes | 67c | 48.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 42.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 39.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 72c | 38.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 39c | 38.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 63c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 43c | 30.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 25.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 78c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 67c | 19.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 61c | 19.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 17.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 14.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.