MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ba600c82025ea3afd538d1946464fe0b072900b5b93ef385ef3028477f143a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x707b…69f2backed No | 55c | 1,820$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d7…89edbacked Yes | 48c | 999.98$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 848.94$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed No | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed No | 52c | 405.87$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 44c | 300$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 52c | 282.39$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.21 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…0d9cbacked No | 54c | 277$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…4744backed No | 56c | 269.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 60c | 267.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.49 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 52c | 193.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 44c | 169.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed No | 55c | 144.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed No | 71c | 141.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 46c | 110.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 46c | 77.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c42…93bfbacked Yes | 51c | 55.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 58c | 50.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed No | 59c | 42.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed No | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 46c | 35.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…38d2backed Yes | 47c | 30.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…fa58backed Yes | 45c | 26.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 44c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 52c | 22.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.