AI · resolved market
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6512b1d4163ddbb883e8c71126889add715c5b093ec2a67ba855831e75dd2b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d44…966fbacked No | 11c | 15,682$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…607ebacked No | 8c | 6,457$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 6,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…b53cbacked No | 1c | 5,250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…cce1backed No | 2c | 2,991$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 73c | 1,800$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.39 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,622$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.32 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 1,472$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,343$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 1,225$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 7c | 971.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…f46abacked No | 10c | 952.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 6c | 908.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 907.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed No | 3c | 799.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 720.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 8c | 706.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 40c | 705.68$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.68 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 30c | 667.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.49 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked No | 8c | 641.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…0fd9backed No | 9c | 630.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 4c | 562.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 480.81$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 8c | 407.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…8efcbacked Yes | 20c | 403.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +403.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 370.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…ae40backed No | 6c | 351.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…5eb8backed No | 18c | 306.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 67c | 304$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed Yes | 42c | 283.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadee…7719backed No | 73c | 271.91$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 271.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 9c | 261.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…72fabacked No | 5c | 256.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 40c | 252.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +122%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 77c | 246.5$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 16c | 225$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.75 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed64…7c2ebacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 169.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.55 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 162.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…8a2dbacked No | 7c | 158.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…de90backed No | 12c | 122.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…586cbacked No | 67c | 118$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 31c | 117.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…b50bbacked Yes | 28c | 106.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…79c8backed Yes | 27c | 97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…f38fbacked No | 57c | 70.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…dababacked Yes | 37c | 55.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 40c | 49.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…b971backed Yes | 31c | 42.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 36.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa060…d60bbacked No | 58c | 36.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…e41dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 43c | 28.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 67c | 17.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 62c | 17.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.