TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof Karmine Corp, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$451,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$477,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $451,275 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x689a…97a4backed Karmine Corp0c111,868$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.879741.2%40 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fc…d802backed Karmine Corp1c44,482$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.36263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-90.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8f…2999backed G2 Esports49c14,809$7,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,552.581154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b9…12e4backed Karmine Corp51c12,674$6,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,463.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Karmine Corp0c12,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Karmine Corp5c11,767$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.231,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Karmine Corp47c10,591$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00066437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed G2 Esports49c10,136$4,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,139.0943151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports65c7,799$5,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.261,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed G2 Esports53c7,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,29082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Karmine Corp23c6,955$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.581,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Karmine Corp51c6,750$3,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,460.133,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Karmine Corp45c6,677$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00036943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Karmine Corp24c6,000$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.311,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Karmine Corp32c4,710$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.1553640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e2…2c81backed Karmine Corp51c4,101$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.291566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed G2 Esports54c4,091$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.091,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Karmine Corp46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.9814041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed G2 Esports53c3,740$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.961,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Karmine Corp28c3,629$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.928056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d75…cf0bbacked Karmine Corp1c3,236$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.281766.3%11 W · 165 L-0.5wins0.00per pick7cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed G2 Esports54c3,003$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.371,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked G2 Esports53c2,918$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.451,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Karmine Corp51c2,885$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.229333.3%31 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Karmine Corp43c2,724$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.311,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed G2 Esports52c2,623$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.831,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ad…6ed7backed Karmine Corp29c2,547$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.81942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed G2 Esports80c2,308$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.51540%6 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Karmine Corp34c2,289$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.631,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Karmine Corp25c2,287$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.1359952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Karmine Corp27c2,241$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.732,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44fc…7961backed G2 Esports48c2,152$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1191250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4918…8573backed Karmine Corp52c2,152$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1191050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…6448backed Karmine Corp52c2,072$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.441625%4 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd39…234fbacked G2 Esports48c2,072$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Karmine Corp45c2,063$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.2925547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked G2 Esports50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed G2 Esports53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94021954.3%119 W · 100 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d1…0139backed G2 Esports49c1,966$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Karmine Corp36c1,906$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.6714644.5%65 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa794…1361backed Karmine Corp11c1,878$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20710624.5%26 W · 80 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed G2 Esports56c1,800$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.9585746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa50b…74b2backed G2 Esports80c1,760$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.710443.3%45 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Karmine Corp23c1,674$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.7385442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Karmine Corp13c1,631$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.681,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5419…fcb2backed Karmine Corp24c1,628$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.93357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked Karmine Corp46c1,593$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.5828166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b86…36eabacked Karmine Corp2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Karmine Corp3c1,459$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.781,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Karmine Corp49c1,400$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.061,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3e…5d9dbacked Karmine Corp3c1,321$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4348042.3%203 W · 277 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Karmine Corp15c1,254$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8139851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed G2 Esports71c1,219$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.4114757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcce5…afb0backed Karmine Corp9c1,194$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Karmine Corp46c1,121$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.661,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Karmine Corp35c1,101$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.7643947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed G2 Esports54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4601,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Karmine Corp17c900$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14952538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Karmine Corp8c900$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed G2 Esports53c900$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42371249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed G2 Esports54c900$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4141,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed G2 Esports48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.3313136.6%48 W · 83 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked G2 Esports66c815.18$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9896057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Karmine Corp5c800$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4396149.9%480 W · 481 L+4.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked G2 Esports55c799.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36095951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Karmine Corp43c729$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.4645344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed G2 Esports62c700$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26786758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Karmine Corp44c696.1$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.281,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96f8…2560backed G2 Esports79c667.45$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.5437660.9%229 W · 147 L-28.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Karmine Corp45c623.91$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.7617839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb91…7db6backed Karmine Corp6c620$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030348.8%148 W · 155 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Karmine Corp49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29495847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Karmine Corp17c600$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9942148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Karmine Corp18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020759.4%123 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Karmine Corp37c538.94$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.311,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked G2 Esports56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7146552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Karmine Corp47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25033143.8%145 W · 186 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed G2 Esports80c530$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10626942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked G2 Esports57c524.59$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.6911950.4%60 W · 59 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked G2 Esports49c509.81$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0106…0e63backed Karmine Corp2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011954.6%65 W · 54 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed G2 Esports45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2752,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb24f…c638backed Karmine Corp41c485.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020051.5%103 W · 97 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Karmine Corp32c462.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15021655.1%119 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Karmine Corp36c461.36$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16640237.8%152 W · 250 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed G2 Esports51c453.86$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.3964155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca6b…9c23backed Karmine Corp24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed G2 Esports51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19624240.9%99 W · 143 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Karmine Corp50c386$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19322250.5%112 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed G2 Esports53c379.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.639750.1%199 W · 198 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked G2 Esports54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3741453.4%221 W · 193 L+1.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Karmine Corp37c366.34$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.562,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Karmine Corp7c359$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.774012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed G2 Esports52c350$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16850547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd1…17ccbacked Karmine Corp3c348.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4660124.1%145 W · 456 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed G2 Esports72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8439152.2%204 W · 187 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf933…8a76backed Karmine Corp22c300$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.53636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed G2 Esports49c290$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.960053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1918…9568backed Karmine Corp52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507437.8%28 W · 46 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked G2 Esports45c273.31$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.691,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.