TailMyPicks
Market

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rei Tsuruyaof Rei Tsuruya, Luis Gurule
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,260
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,260 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fba…d08abacked Rei Tsuruya77c50,066$38,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,515.751315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.5wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-79.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Luis Gurule23c49,891$11,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,474.932630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Luis Gurule4c7,496$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8415444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Rei Tsuruya77c5,673$4,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.791566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Luis Gurule14c2,860$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1b…724fbacked Rei Tsuruya75c2,299$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.854981.6%40 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+22.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Luis Gurule22c2,085$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.6130039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Rei Tsuruya73c1,701$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.1526743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Rei Tsuruya78c1,413$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.8617158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Luis Gurule26c1,146$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.863743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Luis Gurule22c1,070$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.45330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x842e…6ff9backed Rei Tsuruya78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…8faebacked Luis Gurule23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d06…6d6dbacked Luis Gurule26c946.15$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf334…bdefbacked Luis Gurule27c925.93$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Luis Gurule23c878.26$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20226140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x663d…7d23backed Luis Gurule23c847.65$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.962520%5 W · 20 L-5.4wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-57.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Luis Gurule23c769.57$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17713647.8%65 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Luis Gurule22c750$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Rei Tsuruya69c690.26$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.187452.7%39 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed Rei Tsuruya70c623.21$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.215463%34 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Rei Tsuruya76c600$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1443154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Rei Tsuruya74c572.74$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.913759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb12…916fbacked Luis Gurule31c420.19$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.261957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked Rei Tsuruya78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6215656.4%88 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Rei Tsuruya74c381$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.0624356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f22…6482backed Rei Tsuruya72c375.78$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.789756.7%55 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08db…cf71backed Luis Gurule27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003565.7%23 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+32.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5341…2b42backed Luis Gurule25c360$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…d123backed Luis Gurule29c347$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.175942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Luis Gurule31c336.82$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8224256.2%136 W · 106 L+20.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Luis Gurule28c332.82$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.197159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Luis Gurule22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Luis Gurule16c294.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.143438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Rei Tsuruya69c280.91$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7714560%87 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc1…57a1backed Luis Gurule23c257.58$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.24119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick39cpaid-85.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x07dd…029bbacked Luis Gurule30c220$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710351.5%53 W · 50 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7d5…d4d3backed Luis Gurule23c217.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.995062%31 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Luis Gurule23c208.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4851533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed Luis Gurule23c208.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4811837.3%44 W · 74 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Rei Tsuruya68c198.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7356450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Luis Gurule26c193.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2429133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Rei Tsuruya78c192.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.318259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0570…465ebacked Luis Gurule32c187.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.992657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b1f…49e6backed Rei Tsuruya78c182.19$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.083259.4%19 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff97…e7cabacked Rei Tsuruya68c179.05$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.311078.2%86 W · 24 L+15.6wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+20.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Luis Gurule28c162.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.547452.7%39 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Rei Tsuruya78c147.79$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8113646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda79…daecbacked Luis Gurule28c146.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7718540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a68…98aebacked Rei Tsuruya72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8926569.4%184 W · 81 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed Rei Tsuruya73c136.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.366546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Rei Tsuruya74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1413647.1%64 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x635a…3209backed Luis Gurule27c134.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26eb…80cebacked Luis Gurule8c133.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Rei Tsuruya78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.622342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20bf…2be9backed Luis Gurule23c129.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa476…8cfcbacked Rei Tsuruya78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.212774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Rei Tsuruya78c126.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.798950.6%45 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Luis Gurule8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec89…5899backed Luis Gurule25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Luis Gurule30c115.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2790553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Luis Gurule22c114.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1612148.8%59 W · 62 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Luis Gurule23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2532431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Rei Tsuruya70c107.5$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2510255.9%57 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Rei Tsuruya71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Luis Gurule28c81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.682343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c2…5b5fbacked Luis Gurule27c81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Luis Gurule17c74.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.633237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Rei Tsuruya68c71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.722867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+42.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Luis Gurule25c69.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.414639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf555…3608backed Rei Tsuruya69c65.37$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.372286.4%19 W · 3 L+6.5wins+0.30per pick57cpaid+64.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Luis Gurule22c63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.861526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c45…47f1backed Rei Tsuruya78c57.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6919065.3%124 W · 66 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f8c…e275backed Rei Tsuruya67c55.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.37247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Luis Gurule27c55.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.114146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Rei Tsuruya77c51.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.951978.9%15 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Rei Tsuruya78c50.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.014748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Rei Tsuruya78c50.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0836048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Luis Gurule25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.556241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Luis Gurule23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.511154.1%60 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ecc…6c37backed Luis Gurule26c49.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a46…118cbacked Luis Gurule31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc059…a1edbacked Rei Tsuruya78c46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.121457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d83…8673backed Rei Tsuruya78c44.87$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.877170.4%50 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd18d…fc51backed Rei Tsuruya78c38.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.461850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1a…a2bfbacked Rei Tsuruya78c32.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.055667.9%38 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x71dd…a4e2backed Rei Tsuruya74c31.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.281338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe05…c67cbacked Rei Tsuruya79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Rei Tsuruya78c24.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4713836.2%50 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61bb…75c2backed Rei Tsuruya68c21.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.823847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb098…3363backed Rei Tsuruya78c20.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.432365.2%15 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cc4…1403backed Rei Tsuruya78c19.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.214264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee3…600ebacked Rei Tsuruya78c18.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Rei Tsuruya78c16.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5513557%77 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.