Earnings · resolved market
Will Fastenal (FAST) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd95763b99884bc43791ecf75766ca99158926336d532749ce51aaddce8668d91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 50c | 4,098$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.74 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,998$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 15c | 1,934$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.43 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 779.92$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.06 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 7c | 480$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked No | 22c | 414.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…0f55backed Yes | 77c | 376.57$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02d…77efbacked Yes | 76c | 323.09$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 307.78$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.79 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…3695backed Yes | 80c | 270$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…ea33backed No | 21c | 238.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 230.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.28 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 71c | 190.6$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 77c | 144.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 64c | 135$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 67c | 112.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 22c | 110$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…3f70backed No | 23c | 110$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +338.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 80c | 105.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0756…d711backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…36fdbacked Yes | 80c | 93.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 25c | 90.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…203cbacked Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 19c | 80.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +419%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb038…4795backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…d545backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…4c39backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 76c | 42.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…6af8backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0a…fad8backed Yes | 78c | 32.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…7eaebacked Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…433bbacked Yes | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…aef1backed Yes | 75c | 21.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked Yes | 78c | 15.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.