TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof Natus Vincere, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,791 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x661d…4dc6backed Natus Vincere41c25,681$10,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,535.4526634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Natus Vincere50c24,706$12,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,419.0941537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Natus Vincere38c15,532$5,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,870.1911433.3%38 W · 76 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Gentle Mates40c12,231$4,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,282.634356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Gentle Mates60c10,943$6,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,371.6319157.1%109 W · 82 L+23.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfadd…3955backed Gentle Mates48c10,058$4,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,274.86167.2%41 W · 20 L+9.6wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+30.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gentle Mates49c7,327$3,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,764.6424946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ca…cccbbacked Gentle Mates59c6,452$3,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,614.981973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.7wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+65.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Gentle Mates48c5,419$2,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,797.496746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Natus Vincere37c5,380$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.872737%10 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7509…23afbacked Gentle Mates80c5,006$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Natus Vincere61c4,918$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00078162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Natus Vincere38c4,790$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.551,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Gentle Mates74c4,647$3,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.2462156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Natus Vincere37c4,401$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.3718241.2%75 W · 107 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gentle Mates47c3,089$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.993148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked Gentle Mates52c3,079$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.141936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gentle Mates44c2,448$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.531,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Gentle Mates45c2,447$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.6233759.6%201 W · 136 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d79…899abacked Gentle Mates57c2,128$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa340…409bbacked Gentle Mates56c2,054$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.021338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc759…008dbacked Gentle Mates40c2,010$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2061100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Natus Vincere35c1,600$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5553246.9%15 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+37.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67f0…b661backed Gentle Mates40c1,533$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd69d…fe3dbacked Gentle Mates40c1,505$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9031100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Gentle Mates69c1,449$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.233743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc83f…23e4backed Gentle Mates51c1,416$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.331741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gentle Mates58c1,378$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.831,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Natus Vincere61c1,236$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75428247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Natus Vincere61c1,166$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.516847.1%32 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0c…b6bdbacked Gentle Mates47c1,110$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+101.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Natus Vincere42c1,100$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4572441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Natus Vincere39c1,066$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.616131.1%19 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Gentle Mates47c859.28$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.282445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b8…50d8backed Gentle Mates47c855.72$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.53580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+72.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f9b…71f8backed Natus Vincere60c828.13$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.882437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22a6…8fb7backed Gentle Mates43c820.13$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed Gentle Mates76c801.61$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.0314661.6%90 W · 56 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8157…f6ebbacked Natus Vincere60c801.03$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.623455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…fbf0backed Natus Vincere60c767$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x125c…e0d2backed Natus Vincere60c766$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Natus Vincere60c758.72$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.239644.8%43 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf59…7836backed Natus Vincere60c755$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb1…5ddabacked Gentle Mates78c750.92$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfabb…415bbacked Natus Vincere60c750$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00fb…4442backed Gentle Mates78c727$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Gentle Mates47c718.06$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.5715343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Natus Vincere17c688.67$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12017332.4%56 W · 117 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d97…0feebacked Natus Vincere60c680$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a3…a65bbacked Natus Vincere60c670$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…5e03backed Gentle Mates60c662.9$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.91070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5b…a37cbacked Natus Vincere60c660$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Gentle Mates42c632.38$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.923345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Natus Vincere27c558.3$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.058234.1%28 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Natus Vincere52c520$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.6877929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere42c509.76$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.7888844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Gentle Mates47c509.05$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Natus Vincere61c506$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.663748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Natus Vincere37c502.46$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.796336.5%23 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Gentle Mates43c460.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.324949%24 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Natus Vincere53c429.27$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.8331634.2%108 W · 208 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked Natus Vincere60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2405347.2%25 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…a506backed Gentle Mates80c393.51$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.72166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Natus Vincere61c372$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.9233753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d24…6564backed Gentle Mates77c365.7$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.89875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Gentle Mates57c364.72$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.3539545.8%181 W · 214 L-1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Natus Vincere6c363.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.232825%7 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Gentle Mates44c343.48$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.536138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Natus Vincere60c338.14$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2919257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Gentle Mates41c326.61$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6314447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aff…9200backed Gentle Mates49c306.4$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.179139.6%36 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa7…089dbacked Gentle Mates41c299.99$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1773847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Gentle Mates40c299.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18012745.7%58 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3717…b35bbacked Gentle Mates43c274.08$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Natus Vincere60c262.82$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2710455.8%58 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ca…eb95backed Gentle Mates80c260$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Gentle Mates42c247.31$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.527052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Natus Vincere41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006245.2%28 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8212…6677backed Gentle Mates45c220.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Gentle Mates54c217.93$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3479650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe30c…3f38backed Gentle Mates42c214.29$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Gentle Mates43c203.68$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8530828.2%87 W · 221 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02e…8fb2backed Natus Vincere59c203$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.77850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f98…dd31backed Natus Vincere60c192$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.28850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f9…d587backed Gentle Mates43c184.61$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.211471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+40.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cfe…2fd8backed Natus Vincere48c171.41$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8590…f9c6backed Gentle Mates50c169.21$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.332638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Natus Vincere61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x274f…3757backed Gentle Mates47c162.02$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Natus Vincere58c149.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9986747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e53…5c9dbacked Gentle Mates80c144$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.86671.2%47 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Gentle Mates75c140$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Natus Vincere14c138.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Natus Vincere59c135$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8023847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Gentle Mates42c124$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.44443.2%19 W · 25 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+34.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked Natus Vincere58c122.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.915042%63 W · 87 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac03…3840backed Gentle Mates42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.051947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Natus Vincere53c117$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.122035%7 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-49%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x26a6…ff11backed Gentle Mates77c114.35$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere61c114$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.332141.7%134 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.