TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof TheMongolz, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$245,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$305,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26f8…3452backed PARIVISION57c28,234$16,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,140.6120249.5%100 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed TheMongolz43c22,288$9,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,583.888750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed TheMongolz26c15,481$3,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,988.6467041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed PARIVISION51c11,094$5,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,435.9272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed TheMongolz49c10,690$5,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,195.3646949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x246b…fb5bbacked PARIVISION70c9,319$6,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,795.643762.2%23 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed PARIVISION53c5,629$2,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.596650%33 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed TheMongolz18c5,252$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.6957358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TheMongolz45c4,475$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.5876657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION65c4,056$2,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.7424346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TheMongolz43c3,502$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.927,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked TheMongolz48c3,267$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.5816447%77 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed PARIVISION55c2,959$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.5246749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x023e…7334backed PARIVISION52c2,944$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.685064%32 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked PARIVISION66c2,896$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.5719355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked TheMongolz25c2,728$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.113,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked TheMongolz33c2,690$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.7628340.3%114 W · 169 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed PARIVISION73c2,214$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.712571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf755…8e37backed TheMongolz35c2,124$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.864944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed TheMongolz49c2,104$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.4613453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed PARIVISION60c2,042$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.9737445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked TheMongolz10c2,007$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3652834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked PARIVISION54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9209047.8%43 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked TheMongolz46c1,877$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.245,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION68c1,701$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.123,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed TheMongolz47c1,668$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.8955343.2%239 W · 314 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION65c1,446$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.194,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked PARIVISION51c1,445$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.5432548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked TheMongolz10c1,277$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1237441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed PARIVISION53c1,267$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.318947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked TheMongolz2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a06…cf08backed TheMongolz39c1,225$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.826651.5%34 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed TheMongolz44c1,222$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.8356732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked TheMongolz7c1,200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8432832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed PARIVISION53c1,200$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.9925749%126 W · 131 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked TheMongolz41c1,181$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.663,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed TheMongolz47c1,135$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.488032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TheMongolz23c1,125$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.676,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed TheMongolz51c1,110$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.8524944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TheMongolz46c1,076$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.922,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked TheMongolz33c999.95$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9840950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked PARIVISION52c971.2$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.1831253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed TheMongolz48c901$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.071,17854.5%642 W · 536 L-36.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed PARIVISION69c900.4$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.8587847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked TheMongolz21c896.21$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4828443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed TheMongolz13c895.02$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9718426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked TheMongolz47c887.86$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.2931451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe35…5d8bbacked TheMongolz25c872.83$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.071735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked PARIVISION57c825.18$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.151,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked TheMongolz30c808.16$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.451,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked TheMongolz30c794.49$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.992,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed TheMongolz10c746.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6132136.8%118 W · 203 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed PARIVISION53c704.34$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.0419048.9%93 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked TheMongolz51c662.4$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.4333457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TheMongolz49c656.27$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.5765351.9%339 W · 314 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102b…a7acbacked TheMongolz35c597.71$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.814619.6%9 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2156…b735backed TheMongolz28c576.3$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked PARIVISION54c558.23$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.7919148.2%92 W · 99 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed PARIVISION63c526.8$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.2949646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed PARIVISION54c505.65$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.64955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed TheMongolz46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23060848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed PARIVISION70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15026549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked PARIVISION80c493.86$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.051,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked PARIVISION54c486.2$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.6535744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed TheMongolz22c483.26$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.72326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+53.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked TheMongolz23c476.8$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0480%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed TheMongolz8c472.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.791,28322%282 W · 1,001 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d42…cde0backed PARIVISION71c464.54$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.327152.1%37 W · 34 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed TheMongolz30c450.06$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.029256.5%52 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed PARIVISION55c442.27$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.027561.3%46 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed TheMongolz47c438.47$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7736554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed TheMongolz36c431.42$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6929052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked TheMongolz45c428.97$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4517357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed PARIVISION71c413.49$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5611166.7%74 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed TheMongolz47c412.43$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6341850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2f…2ae1backed TheMongolz14c410$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.984626.1%12 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked TheMongolz14c405.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.611,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed TheMongolz48c403.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.766426.6%17 W · 47 L-12.3wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed PARIVISION56c399.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.282,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed TheMongolz7c398.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8746545.6%212 W · 253 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked TheMongolz24c359.91$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6578963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b87…997ebacked TheMongolz42c349.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+100.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8941…3126backed TheMongolz30c319.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.815533.5%52 W · 103 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3652…6b02backed TheMongolz47c315.18$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+107.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed TheMongolz29c301.2$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2314135.5%50 W · 91 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked TheMongolz18c300$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5370423.9%168 W · 536 L+2.7wins0.00per pick23cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed TheMongolz40c289.2$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6860838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed TheMongolz32c287.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1163541.1%261 W · 374 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed PARIVISION65c283.61$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2641960.9%255 W · 164 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…22b6backed PARIVISION76c281.89$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.654744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed PARIVISION69c262.52$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0878348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed PARIVISION67c259.98$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7950846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391b…a066backed PARIVISION55c252.9$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed PARIVISION80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5036555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION69c249.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.558961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3600…f72bbacked TheMongolz39c249.78$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3131950.5%161 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked PARIVISION54c246.7$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.488161.7%50 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed TheMongolz8c236.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.915264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0af…3b75backed TheMongolz32c229.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6118342.1%77 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed PARIVISION58c229$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.935549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.