TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
REKONIXof Yellow Submarine, REKONIX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,106

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Yellow Submarine49c12,502$6,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,140.3996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked REKONIX51c9,617$4,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,753.989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked REKONIX50c7,890$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,970.721,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed REKONIX49c7,575$3,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,897.681,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed REKONIX50c6,189$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,123.2245750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked REKONIX53c5,324$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.9827143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Yellow Submarine54c4,200$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.0280256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed REKONIX49c4,180$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12768649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked REKONIX49c4,166$2,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.8589749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Yellow Submarine51c3,484$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.9743344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Yellow Submarine48c3,171$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.3138855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed REKONIX46c3,075$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.91,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Yellow Submarine50c2,891$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.2733041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Yellow Submarine60c2,833$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.016354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Yellow Submarine53c2,808$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.2396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Yellow Submarine51c2,519$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2817429.7%22 W · 52 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed REKONIX41c2,400$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Yellow Submarine49c2,186$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.7739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Yellow Submarine52c1,562$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.2995342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Yellow Submarine47c1,543$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.1654246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Yellow Submarine53c1,331$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71026843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yellow Submarine46c1,256$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.241,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Yellow Submarine48c1,200$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.8492056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Yellow Submarine50c1,180$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.3879959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Yellow Submarine53c1,089$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.1972035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked REKONIX61c1,051$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.81,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Yellow Submarine37c1,014$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.361,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Yellow Submarine45c1,011$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.411,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Yellow Submarine53c899.77$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.8855251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Yellow Submarine61c819.97$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Yellow Submarine57c803.25$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.7356548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Yellow Submarine50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40043738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yellow Submarine30c757.2$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.3379341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed REKONIX55c700$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3178946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Yellow Submarine48c697.6$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.5350053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked REKONIX52c686.25$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.486659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Yellow Submarine53c666$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.9885851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yellow Submarine46c653.56$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.575932.2%19 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Yellow Submarine50c650.8$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.429546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Yellow Submarine11c637$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3135430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5341…92d6backed Yellow Submarine50c614.18$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yellow Submarine7c600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Yellow Submarine49c599.99$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29341055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yellow Submarine47c579.91$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.949044.4%40 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Yellow Submarine47c505.59$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed REKONIX51c502.39$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6874549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Yellow Submarine52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26028549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked REKONIX39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30556243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Yellow Submarine49c500$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24765863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked REKONIX42c484.29$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.2243049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yellow Submarine14c482.9$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1369033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Yellow Submarine47c448.03$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5779859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yellow Submarine14c432$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7316837.5%63 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yellow Submarine36c428.97$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9989938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa23…33e0backed Yellow Submarine46c415$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-61.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yellow Submarine55c407.08$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8826956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Yellow Submarine27c399.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10817054.7%93 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Yellow Submarine11c395$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.815536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Yellow Submarine53c380.39$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20123555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Yellow Submarine52c374.73$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19361456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Yellow Submarine54c371.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed REKONIX27c360$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.869132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Yellow Submarine35c349.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12463032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Yellow Submarine49c342.39$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7736547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked REKONIX48c319.5$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.7153139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Yellow Submarine48c299.98$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9944149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84a…702dbacked REKONIX51c298.04$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.0415949.7%79 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked REKONIX69c288.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4535370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine46c253.16$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.062,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Yellow Submarine48c249.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.998469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Yellow Submarine34c235.82$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1836851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Yellow Submarine50c234.97$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3656343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Yellow Submarine45c222.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.161,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300a…4c94backed Yellow Submarine49c206$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked REKONIX43c204$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.451,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yellow Submarine54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10867555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked REKONIX55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908846.6%41 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Yellow Submarine51c192.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6572154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Yellow Submarine57c190$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.321264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Yellow Submarine52c186.05$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7525851.2%132 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Yellow Submarine15c172.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3765337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yellow Submarine31c171$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2168345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed REKONIX54c164$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0612651.6%65 W · 61 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed REKONIX54c161$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4318248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed REKONIX54c161$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4325351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed Yellow Submarine50c156.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Yellow Submarine71c154.77$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060660.7%368 W · 238 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce5…a07fbacked REKONIX46c152.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.173557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed REKONIX77c152$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.960251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed REKONIX33c149.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0272637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed REKONIX50c144.04$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.761,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9233…b93abacked Yellow Submarine48c143$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.643259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Yellow Submarine54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.250444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed REKONIX43c123.92$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1727357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Yellow Submarine37c123.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.311553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc9…e4afbacked Yellow Submarine49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605738.6%22 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Yellow Submarine14c118.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0210741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked REKONIX52c112.07$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.792075%15 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Yellow Submarine52c109.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.891,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked REKONIX38c104.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0211644.8%52 W · 64 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.