NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb224c48f646544306729d96ebbb23a83b2bbdcc869b719e1d2ddd177240abbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Hornets, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hornets | 48c | 3,181$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.92 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Pistons | 54c | 2,470$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.07 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Hornets | 45c | 2,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.99 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 66c | 1,738$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Hornets | 1c | 1,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pistons | 55c | 1,005$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.44 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Hornets | 45c | 890$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Pistons | 52c | 687.25$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.88 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Pistons | 56c | 672.82$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.04 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Pistons | 54c | 612.25$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.64 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Pistons | 53c | 567.32$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.64 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Hornets | 47c | 492.34$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.4 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 52c | 411.35$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hornets | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…81f6backed Pistons | 56c | 208.63$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5c…0fc2backed Pistons | 54c | 187.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Pistons | 66c | 141.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hornets | 46c | 125.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Pistons | 66c | 94.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…a62dbacked Pistons | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…2c73backed Pistons | 54c | 74.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Pistons | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Pistons | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Pistons | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Pistons | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Pistons | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Pistons | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Pistons | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hornets | 47c | 44.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5367…dfc1backed Hornets | 48c | 39.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Pistons | 54c | 35.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Hornets | 47c | 33.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Hornets | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hornets | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Pistons | 66c | 24.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Pistons | 66c | 23.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed Pistons | 51c | 20.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Pistons | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Pistons | 66c | 18.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)this page
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Coby White: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Grant Williams: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 17.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. HornetsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.