NHL · resolved market
Will a Canadian team win NHL Stanley Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeb8c0d722b65db32cfd8a463c3e70cfa5e5554546217c7bf3de8fcea5476916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 39c | 2,308$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.01 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked No | 32c | 2,114$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.61 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…7cd3backed No | 67c | 2,112$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes | 33c | 1,803$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed No | 47c | 1,021$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed No | 61c | 1,005$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.35 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 53c | 973.65$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 53c | 940.1$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.26 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…2720backed No | 52c | 761.91$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.91 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 49c | 706.31$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.25 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 3c | 668.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Yes | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 36c | 328.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…18fabacked Yes | 60c | 286.82$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352a…b8a8backed No | 80c | 270.31$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…cf90backed No | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0b…25d9backed Yes | 53c | 175.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…4f0abacked Yes | 64c | 164$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +405.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Yes | 50c | 154.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked No | 69c | 130.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 362 | 42%152 W · 210 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 38c | 125.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 124.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 53c | 123.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9146…293abacked Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 51c | 119.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044a…5480backed Yes | 30c | 98.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…eed4backed Yes | 31c | 93.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 93.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 47c | 92.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked No | 33c | 92.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 55c | 92.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 52c | 82.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…dc15backed No | 55c | 80.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x957a…8e26backed Yes | 33c | 80.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 50c | 79.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…2dacbacked Yes | 30c | 66.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…2dcfbacked Yes | 49c | 61.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…22bcbacked Yes | 51c | 58.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…e14bbacked Yes | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…4814backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…a365backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…3791backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…6445backed Yes | 62c | 48.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11df…291bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…9684backed No | 58c | 43.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…a830backed Yes | 46c | 36.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…8a55backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…1fbfbacked Yes | 54c | 35.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 46c | 30.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…2577backed No | 79c | 29.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9528…7c7abacked No | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 38c | 27.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…c807backed Yes | 55c | 27.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c07…da3cbacked Yes | 43c | 25.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…c588backed No | 73c | 24.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…f70ebacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.