Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfde93dc6f47b3d59de60a2930ba20cfbcd09af27d0eee7ddab31b2d99e25730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 62c | 3,471$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.3 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 37c | 3,437$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.69 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 51c | 3,022$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.42 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 49c | 2,377$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.13 | 346 | 28.6%99 W · 247 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 2,376$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.18 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 36c | 2,090$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.17 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 1,569$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.01 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 45c | 1,395$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.04 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 55c | 1,119$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.79 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 52c | 934.21$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.42 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 793.73$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.33 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x383f…5631backed Over | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 60c | 656.13$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 47c | 477.21$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.72 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked Over | 49c | 455.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 51c | 442.23$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.69 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7719backed Under | 51c | 314.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9ba2backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 76c | 261.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 259.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Over | 49c | 244.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 231.81$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 217.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.05 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Under | 53c | 215.05$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 45c | 212$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 48c | 207.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 207$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 155 | 47.1%73 W · 82 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 48c | 206.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 52c | 204.81$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…bbeebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 45c | 165$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…4591backed Under | 52c | 163.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…80d6backed Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 51c | 156$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 149$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 141.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 543 | 40.5%220 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…f90ebacked Over | 49c | 137$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 48c | 122.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked Under | 51c | 103.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 76c | 99.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…b7c7backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 49c | 86.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 49c | 76.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 51c | 75.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 335 | 51.3%172 W · 163 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…4a39backed Over | 47c | 68.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Over | 31c | 55.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 72c | 42.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Under | 63c | 40.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 70c | 39.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 52c | 34.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…a4f5backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Under | 53c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 49c | 27.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 45c | 23.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…db98backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.