World Politics · resolved market
Left-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe29e7092e0cd0ee93f16ca30c83eb5d2bc9c2a5f26fb64d21431dff024d939ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 1c | 2,764$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef0…7296backed No | 33c | 1,830$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…8fa2backed No | 33c | 1,687$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…fdd5backed No | 62c | 1,549$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed Yes | 66c | 1,213$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 29c | 1,186$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.1 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…a071backed Yes | 67c | 907$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…ed41backed Yes | 67c | 903$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…4f40backed Yes | 67c | 903$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342f…5b21backed Yes | 67c | 885$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 62c | 623$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked No | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…aec3backed Yes | 62c | 590$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 38c | 590$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2151…5f1dbacked Yes | 72c | 558.7$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 31c | 529$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 69c | 527$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 75c | 513.58$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…90c3backed Yes | 74c | 476.29$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 26c | 458.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 70c | 420.11$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…7c26backed Yes | 64c | 393.91$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 33c | 384.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 36c | 383.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.26per pick | 22cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed No | 37c | 328.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 310.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753d…4478backed No | 34c | 291.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…33fbbacked Yes | 31c | 289.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 38c | 244$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 38c | 213$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 174.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 38c | 166$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 160.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1539…7b64backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…d96bbacked Yes | 74c | 134.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 67c | 129$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed No | 30c | 126.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…a7eebacked No | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +329.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 41c | 122.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…4655backed No | 31c | 109.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed Yes | 79c | 95.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…d918backed No | 34c | 94.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 25c | 93.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 27c | 89.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 64c | 82.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…1ce3backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…da8bbacked No | 54c | 68.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed No | 75c | 67.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…e8e6backed No | 38c | 65.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 54.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4f…448abacked No | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…88e7backed Yes | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…a33dbacked Yes | 74c | 42.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b6…8d68backed No | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked No | 35c | 40.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 77c | 40.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 40.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 38.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…318abacked Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38f…8e46backed No | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…6625backed Yes | 72c | 31.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…9c79backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +597.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…e9a7backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f2…c1c1backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…b3f3backed Yes | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 50c | 28.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +284.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…cb87backed Yes | 72c | 27.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 45c | 27.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…0b93backed Yes | 71c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 79c | 19.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e5…8664backed Yes | 73c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.