NBA · resolved market
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe29f931a4af5db6e052f98495b855d545be5e2accca16c3f3179fc3546c04227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91eb…2e19backed Yes | 19c | 4,662$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.41 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +59%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,530$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,419$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 705.8$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.13 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 18c | 667.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 140 | 59.3%83 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 19c | 452.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 76c | 404.81$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 20c | 362$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 307.32$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…dd2bbacked Yes | 37c | 297.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 63c | 285.56$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.66 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 280$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 17c | 272.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 20c | 183.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…ce51backed Yes | 14c | 180.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 158.1$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…ee06backed Yes | 11c | 130.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 119.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 114.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 78c | 112.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41d…2134backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x601f…76adbacked Yes | 17c | 61.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…2838backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 80c | 34.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?this page
- Will Caleb Wilson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.