Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ec4061bece53c6d6ec4e89c6ddf24e2b4fb3f206fb1a27262033feae7dcb2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 76c | 1,511$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.17 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 1,099$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 3c | 880.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 30c | 861.59$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 62c | 682.08$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.04 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 66c | 476.06$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.88 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 29c | 331.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 307.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 276.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 25c | 270$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 27c | 212.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 73c | 207.33$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 6c | 186.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 77c | 159$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 42c | 154.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 79c | 145.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 137$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 136.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 30c | 135.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 122.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 119.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 72c | 118.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 113.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 105.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 105.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 103.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 28c | 101$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 50c | 100.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 97.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 93.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 37c | 79.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 76.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbe…a158backed Yes | 42c | 71.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 64.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 52.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed No | 51c | 50.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 43c | 43.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 30c | 41.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 63c | 39.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 61c | 33.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 30.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 41c | 28.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 22.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 56c | 20.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 16.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.