Movies · resolved market
Will "Hamnet" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe46304e28ddb8506fa118a9d8f4d538d6b337922f8636518838aef230135b3ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 79c | 3,519$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 13c | 1,185$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.44 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 18c | 1,142$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 12c | 1,100$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…28bdbacked No | 12c | 1,055$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 15c | 1,007$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 11c | 753.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 28c | 631$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 14c | 625.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 16c | 574.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 11c | 496.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed No | 12c | 447$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 10c | 398$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 72c | 390$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 378.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 11c | 373$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 78c | 341.24$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 10c | 275.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 13c | 265.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 12c | 259$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 14c | 244.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 72c | 241$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…9403backed No | 21c | 232.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 12c | 204.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 159.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 141.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 135.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 105.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 78c | 103.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 87.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 79c | 63.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 72c | 30.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hamnet" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will "28 Years Later" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Goodbye June" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "I Swear" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Mr Burton" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Pillion" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "The Ballad of Wallis Island" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.