Fifa International · resolved market
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4dd27e125a33539ad270bd925d4601cb744f6facc2a97193ebae8115c7e1eb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,295$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.83 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e97…4f4abacked Yes | 16c | 5,107$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 11c | 3,919$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.4 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 11c | 3,879$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.44 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce59…b2e5backed Yes | 9c | 3,053$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…cdd2backed Yes | 14c | 2,850$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.99 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…eb10backed Yes | 18c | 2,590$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.3 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 12c | 2,018$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 13c | 1,981$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.87 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…e33ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,947$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…bc96backed Yes | 14c | 1,600$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,470$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.62 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4d…c02dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,342$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45aa…2994backed Yes | 12c | 1,168$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…f020backed Yes | 10c | 1,013$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 964.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…50f5backed Yes | 11c | 666.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3284…0673backed Yes | 16c | 627.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…17fbbacked Yes | 34c | 604.33$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…0014backed Yes | 15c | 601.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 550.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…3f67backed Yes | 9c | 532.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…6ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 502.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 9c | 493.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 126 | 6.3%8 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…b023backed Yes | 11c | 484.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…e412backed Yes | 11c | 470.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…4751backed Yes | 10c | 467.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…44d6backed Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…4659backed Yes | 9c | 392.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 388$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…21b7backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 8c | 377.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…19e9backed Yes | 7c | 372.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…f3eebacked Yes | 12c | 340.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 310.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…c31dbacked Yes | 11c | 309.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b5…a2e8backed Yes | 16c | 307.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 295$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…25ffbacked Yes | 9c | 268.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 13c | 256.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 230.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 216.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa254…e3e7backed Yes | 24c | 216.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Yes | 17c | 215.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 242 | 46.7%113 W · 129 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…6dfcbacked Yes | 9c | 204.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea0…97ebbacked Yes | 13c | 203.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 13c | 201.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes | 15c | 183.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 14c | 164$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…c980backed Yes | 14c | 157.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 29.4%42 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 14c | 127.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd7…1d0cbacked Yes | 16c | 123.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…38a8backed Yes | 13c | 122.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 249 | 54.2%135 W · 114 L | +40.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…b041backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 11c | 94.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 84.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…dd91backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…7b08backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab0…7b1cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?this page
- Will Mexico be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Mexico win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.