Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Liverpool end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6c30cecda25c6a8abdd142e1a33522f9e36e8204fc6e7ff7522c6ec477e04fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 48c | 8,896$4,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,227 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 49c | 5,422$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,756.34 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 37c | 5,150$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.75 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…ac75backed No | 10c | 2,003$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.27 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…4056backed Yes | 60c | 1,947$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.62 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 30c | 1,833$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.33 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 23c | 1,296$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 77c | 1,286$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 38c | 1,006$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.43 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d43bbacked Yes | 21c | 883.67$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.1 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 24c | 872.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.47 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…b37dbacked Yes | 25c | 648$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 23c | 480$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.8 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…9e72backed Yes | 24c | 412$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 31c | 258.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.06 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 75c | 217.6$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…1601backed Yes | 29c | 201.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8175…e4b8backed Yes | 50c | 198.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 32c | 155.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 75c | 145$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 22c | 142.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 34c | 137$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 62c | 133.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 12c | 133.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yes | 28c | 103$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x728c…4e58backed No | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…e44abacked Yes | 25c | 92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 76c | 90.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed No | 57c | 84.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe98…c7afbacked No | 50c | 84.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Yes | 60c | 82.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 70c | 77.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5dd8backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0b2bbacked No | 76c | 67.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +241.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 30c | 64.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 50c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 41c | 57.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Yes | 60c | 43.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…a44bbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f18cbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Liverpool end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-19?No won
- Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.