TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Central Arkansas Bears vs. West Georgia Wolves

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Central Arkansas Bearsof Central Arkansas Bears, West Georgia Wolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,212
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,212 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56fc…733ebacked West Georgia Wolves44c32,400$14,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,182.954560%27 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Central Arkansas Bears58c27,564$15,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,606.395,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked West Georgia Wolves36c6,123$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed West Georgia Wolves37c4,653$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.781,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed West Georgia Wolves35c4,596$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.989146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Central Arkansas Bears63c4,544$2,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.446543.1%28 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Central Arkansas Bears61c4,126$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.1216056.9%91 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Central Arkansas Bears74c3,610$2,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.8618654.3%101 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed West Georgia Wolves25c3,583$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.692,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed West Georgia Wolves40c3,440$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.552,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Central Arkansas Bears57c3,211$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.5939744.8%178 W · 219 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Central Arkansas Bears56c2,081$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.172,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed West Georgia Wolves37c2,012$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.996149.2%30 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Central Arkansas Bears61c2,000$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.022,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked West Georgia Wolves1c1,729$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.733993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked West Georgia Wolves40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020026%52 W · 148 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Central Arkansas Bears59c1,467$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.654,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Central Arkansas Bears58c1,318$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.4444146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2773…5e90backed West Georgia Wolves29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f91…40adbacked Central Arkansas Bears55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4504055%22 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Central Arkansas Bears70c786.17$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.643,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked Central Arkansas Bears60c783.33$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3313247%62 W · 70 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Central Arkansas Bears66c758.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.6827450%137 W · 137 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed West Georgia Wolves38c741.39$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.737038.6%27 W · 43 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Central Arkansas Bears68c692.86$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.9331646.8%148 W · 168 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Central Arkansas Bears61c680$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.215851.9%82 W · 76 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Central Arkansas Bears60c634.57$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.763,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa926…eb7abacked West Georgia Wolves5c570.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked West Georgia Wolves40c546$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.991,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa57f…1b3cbacked West Georgia Wolves18c543.9$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Central Arkansas Bears63c542.53$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.253762.2%23 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed West Georgia Wolves36c512.44$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0197447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked West Georgia Wolves27c508.48$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.811,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked West Georgia Wolves40c499.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8781453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed West Georgia Wolves21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10094036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed West Georgia Wolves23c426.41$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.513840.6%56 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051e…8636backed West Georgia Wolves3c405.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed West Georgia Wolves3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220024%48 W · 152 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed West Georgia Wolves43c389$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.272,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da4…2b9cbacked West Georgia Wolves28c308.69$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Central Arkansas Bears65c308.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4245351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked West Georgia Wolves39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.755545.5%25 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked West Georgia Wolves23c234.22$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.341,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked West Georgia Wolves28c220.31$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.631,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a89…196fbacked Central Arkansas Bears70c211.9$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.574858.3%28 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Central Arkansas Bears59c209$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6975447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc5…a45bbacked Central Arkansas Bears77c149.12$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Central Arkansas Bears68c133.86$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1427358.6%160 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6c…f972backed Central Arkansas Bears66c129.34$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked West Georgia Wolves41c120.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.95520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30dd…cbfdbacked Central Arkansas Bears61c113.8$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked West Georgia Wolves43c113.31$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.726136.1%22 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508c…2e81backed Central Arkansas Bears59c109.06$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked West Georgia Wolves39c105.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.641,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec71…70ebbacked Central Arkansas Bears59c101.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.691957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6aa…3746backed West Georgia Wolves40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf837…8b61backed West Georgia Wolves16c96.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.451573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Central Arkansas Bears60c92.43$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.061,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Central Arkansas Bears55c89.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1245953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed West Georgia Wolves15c86.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.968140.7%33 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Central Arkansas Bears63c83.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.951850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed West Georgia Wolves24c82.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.627812.8%10 W · 68 L-17.2wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-78.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xaed4…4cc9backed West Georgia Wolves31c80.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed West Georgia Wolves39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014339.9%57 W · 86 L-0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked West Georgia Wolves21c74.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.621,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Central Arkansas Bears62c72.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.589051.1%46 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Central Arkansas Bears72c72$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.378547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6271…4ac6backed Central Arkansas Bears66c69.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.534553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Central Arkansas Bears63c62$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2431666.1%209 W · 107 L+24.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b9…0a9bbacked Central Arkansas Bears61c61.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.917350.7%37 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed West Georgia Wolves40c61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1999045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa7…089dbacked Central Arkansas Bears61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.49851%50 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Central Arkansas Bears62c57.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1122953.7%123 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Central Arkansas Bears79c56.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.653046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Central Arkansas Bears75c55.04$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.731,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked West Georgia Wolves42c55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31db…c25fbacked Central Arkansas Bears54c53.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.832070%14 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Central Arkansas Bears57c53.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9722552.9%119 W · 106 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8854…070cbacked Central Arkansas Bears72c52.88$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.021662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Central Arkansas Bears59c51.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1170349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed West Georgia Wolves39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeca…8c27backed West Georgia Wolves38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199037.8%34 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked West Georgia Wolves38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed West Georgia Wolves40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2078052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Central Arkansas Bears61c46.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.12,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Central Arkansas Bears70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1644955.2%248 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa679…7bc6backed West Georgia Wolves37c39.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Central Arkansas Bears68c37.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2517943.6%78 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…d3abbacked West Georgia Wolves41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520234.2%69 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked West Georgia Wolves39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.735650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ab…963bbacked Central Arkansas Bears70c28.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.56100%6 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ba…4d28backed Central Arkansas Bears65c27.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.695160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a5…7e3dbacked Central Arkansas Bears62c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481e…5491backed Central Arkansas Bears63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8535…2024backed Central Arkansas Bears75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d93…4e27backed Central Arkansas Bears65c18.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f8…5bf4backed Central Arkansas Bears71c15.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.