TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes77c914.74$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes46c600.5$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.9381558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No3c489.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes52c487.02$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.85,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No52c377.38$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.824,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c361.77$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes35c299.1$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.0450860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No39c260.89$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8456424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No43c223.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.772,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c223.43$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.374,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.084,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6a…eb61backed No63c197.05$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6710342.7%44 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No64c188.35$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.311,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No44c180.04$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.382,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No34c176.31$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.392,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No41c166.04$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.832,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No15c151.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.126,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes50c150.71$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.032,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c148.88$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.875,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes47c144.17$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7824141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c133.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No48c129.39$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.974,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No53c127.17$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.891,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No55c127.14$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.555,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No69c120.07$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8525784.4%217 W · 40 L+30.3wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes38c118.17$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.592,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No35c116.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.42,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes65c115.3$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.41,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed No14c113.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.959115.4%14 W · 77 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No32c110.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No39c104.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.682,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes37c102.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0917251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c95.14$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No49c90$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5157545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No45c88.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.232,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes50c83$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.513636%49 W · 87 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No57c81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8740162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No64c78.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.243,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes64c78.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2864446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes49c75.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c71.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.714,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x830b…c771backed Yes34c70$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+136.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c67.14$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.673,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes73c63.83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No31c63.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.352,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No30c61.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3295852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No38c60.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.152,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes40c60.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1425342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2414254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.743,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes36c59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7614957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No61c58.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.621,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No46c57.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.341,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes68c54.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4412350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x722e…faddbacked No48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No50c50.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3421339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No31c49.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.492,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No65c47.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.974,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No67c46.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3621370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No26c44.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.922,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No28c44.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.449,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No40c42.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes54c41.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.141,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No48c39.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes56c39.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0416656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes30c38.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.380735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No67c38.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7139810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11b0…f988backed Yes58c38.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1415556.1%87 W · 68 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No52c36.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.792,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed No51c32.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5325332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23e8…9373backed No61c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.525675%42 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No51c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.324,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes58c31.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4381855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes63c31.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8928546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6851…ec54backed Yes50c29.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.764454.5%24 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c28.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.33,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes56c27.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.91,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8177…e5d4backed No72c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.448976.4%68 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes74c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.989146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.880962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.834935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba6d…9128backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.68251.2%42 W · 40 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.212758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No56c19.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.182,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb77a…4238backed Yes79c17.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes69c17.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.561929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69a7…7fd5backed No72c16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.526473.4%47 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.