Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaa7f8480e298e2fb846603fc2afe7a94613583dfc851a7c567a6886e0fdc945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 77c | 914.74$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.17 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 600.5$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.93 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 3c | 489.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 487.02$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 377.38$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 361.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 35c | 299.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 39c | 260.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 43c | 223.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 223.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 63c | 197.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 188.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 44c | 180.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 176.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 166.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 151.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 150.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 148.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 47c | 144.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 133.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 129.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 127.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 127.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 120.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 38c | 118.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 35c | 116.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 65c | 115.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 14c | 113.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 104.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 37c | 102.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 95.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 49c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 88.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 57c | 81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 78.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 64c | 78.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 49c | 75.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 71.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 67.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 73c | 63.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 63.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 30c | 61.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 60.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 40c | 60.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 58.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 57.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 68c | 54.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 50.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 49.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 47.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 67c | 46.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 44.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 28c | 44.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 40c | 42.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 41.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 56c | 39.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 38.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 67c | 38.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 58c | 38.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 36.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 51c | 32.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 31.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 63c | 31.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 50c | 29.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 28.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 56c | 27.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 19.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77a…4238backed Yes | 79c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 69c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.