Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead1bad6244ce02767bb7b7a08c9aae647d80c79e5f469beea7a268b27d18026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 535.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 63c | 394.54$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.09 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 57c | 310.83$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed Yes | 43c | 198.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…a4a0backed No | 54c | 176.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…f49abacked No | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 42c | 158.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 38c | 153.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 142.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…579cbacked Yes | 39c | 133.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 124$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 54c | 119.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked Yes | 45c | 118.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 114.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 56c | 108.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 61c | 97.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 53c | 96.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…e1b6backed Yes | 46c | 96.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 91.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 91.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 85.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 55c | 82.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 79.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 49c | 77.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 73.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 72.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 39c | 72.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 47c | 70.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 67.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 66.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…d073backed No | 54c | 65.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b3…062cbacked Yes | 27c | 64.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 57c | 62.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 53.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 41c | 49.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed No | 69c | 48.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 38c | 47.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 54c | 42.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 37c | 42.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 56c | 41.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 47c | 40.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 39.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 31c | 39.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 38.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 37.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 37.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…89d8backed Yes | 45c | 36.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 42c | 35.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 35.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 59c | 34.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…9c5ebacked No | 54c | 33.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 55c | 33.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 48c | 33.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed No | 52c | 31.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 30.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c70…f205backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 71c | 29.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 54c | 28.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 47c | 28.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 44c | 28.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 43c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 50c | 27.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 53c | 26.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 53c | 26.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 55c | 26.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 78c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 24.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 51c | 23.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 23.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…fca3backed No | 56c | 22.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 51c | 21.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 53c | 21.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 47c | 21.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 58c | 20.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 60c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 16.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 72c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.