Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecdfd86efed697a8b3ce753c786002a2b750a7c6808547a896c8c97cecf76d74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 46c | 1,300$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 55c | 923.28$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.38 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 549.7$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.92 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 54c | 404.43$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.26 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 339.65$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 299.96$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 47c | 255.67$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 235$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 226.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 215$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 213.97$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 189.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 177.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 171.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 164.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 156$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 146.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 51c | 135.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 133.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 41c | 118.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 109$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 102.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 99.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 49c | 93.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 48c | 92.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 80.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 76.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 66.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed Yes | 41c | 58.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 57.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 43c | 57.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 50c | 51.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 43c | 49.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 48c | 48.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 34c | 48.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 44c | 46.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 51c | 43.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 43.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 43.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 53c | 41.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 49c | 41.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 38.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5d…c45abacked Yes | 35c | 38.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 33.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 40c | 30.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 60c | 29.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 43c | 29.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 53c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 28.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 27.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…b875backed Yes | 56c | 26.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 48c | 25.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 23.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 62c | 21.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 52c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 16.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.