Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa71662436b6e74c4cc9b2e0cd70268ea5fdbe6d0a4898c16be42bb560d1379ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 1,378$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.45 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 38c | 906.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.15 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 66c | 583.67$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.83 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 583.1$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.36 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 484.08$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 416.17$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 377.46$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 350.87$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 37c | 342.94$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.82 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 62c | 314.66$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 263.89$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 232.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 230$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 226.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 195.93$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 192.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 165$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 163.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 161.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 159.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 34c | 152.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 31c | 150.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 69c | 144.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 139.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 47c | 108.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 100.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 88.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…b953backed No | 48c | 82.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 68.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 23c | 66.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 54c | 61.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 31c | 56.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 64c | 54.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 53.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 36c | 53.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 35c | 52.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ef…6544backed Yes | 34c | 47.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 54c | 47.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 47.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 47.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 43.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 43.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 25c | 40.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 32.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 40c | 29.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 37c | 28.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 28.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 46c | 27.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 62c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 64c | 21.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 63c | 21.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…bee3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 19.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 17.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 17.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 16.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed No | 69c | 15.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 63c | 15.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.