Earnings · resolved market
Will American Airlines Group (AAL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xece7f644bc968acd0f2bbd1fb4113fbd5dacc82731b20b120517e5fe0e1b18ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 67c | 2,840$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.05 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 35c | 1,365$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.89 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 850.93$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.84 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…26f9backed Yes | 66c | 762.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed No | 46c | 543.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 40c | 471.06$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 32c | 452$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.15 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 68c | 416.58$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.54 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 33c | 401.19$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 67c | 346.26$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.71 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed Yes | 69c | 342.96$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…8355backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 315.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…3495backed Yes | 66c | 271.96$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 23c | 260.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 34c | 234.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ad…4363backed No | 34c | 232.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 58c | 201.48$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 30c | 199.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 69c | 177.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 120.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…f56bbacked No | 29c | 114.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 67c | 108.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 30c | 104.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 22c | 83.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 80.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 26c | 79.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…14fcbacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…e5c9backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 66c | 50.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +32%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 24c | 44.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 50c | 37.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…2c5ebacked No | 43c | 34.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…015dbacked No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…7d21backed Yes | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc60…fdc5backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…c79ebacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…9dd7backed No | 35c | 28.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…b304backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…fe6abacked Yes | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…6111backed Yes | 68c | 24.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d90…e2c4backed Yes | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 63c | 16.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.