Serie A · resolved market
Will US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef4074fe59e516038ef66c08660445744440b858fbabe593f2844cfba9e6b54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Yes | 28c | 108,779$30,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,525.55 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 71c | 56,325$40,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,189.24 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 55,596$39,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,004.65 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 29c | 37,803$10,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,939.56 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 73c | 20,128$14,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,496.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 73c | 10,000$7,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,680 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 3,162$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.69 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 3,077$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.55 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 18c | 1,056$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +11.2wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 74c | 909.84$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.56 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 639.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 72c | 634.3$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…ad1cbacked No | 76c | 581.1$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 73c | 499.54$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 499.32$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 28c | 399.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 26c | 367.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 27c | 312.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +35%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Yes | 29c | 237.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c4…26f2backed No | 75c | 199.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 167.75$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 25c | 144.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 136.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed No | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 125.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…8aa7backed No | 73c | 119.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…266ebacked No | 74c | 118.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…5312backed Yes | 18c | 107.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 26c | 106.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed No | 75c | 104.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed No | 73c | 101.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…4198backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…d240backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…02ccbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 25c | 98.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 29c | 98.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 27c | 95.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 18c | 95.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 85.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 182 | 53.8%98 W · 84 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Yes | 26c | 84.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 26c | 82.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…0ef8backed Yes | 17c | 76.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed No | 75c | 72.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 28c | 69.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked No | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 26c | 55.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 255 | 56.5%144 W · 111 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 25c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 74c | 48.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 73c | 45.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 43.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked No | 75c | 34.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked No | 74c | 33.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…2d99backed No | 73c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…bad3backed No | 74c | 23.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…0b28backed No | 74c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…f46ebacked No | 75c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 75c | 21.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfea…8006backed No | 75c | 21.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…2d61backed No | 73c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed No | 77c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8e…cfbcbacked No | 75c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…f426backed No | 75c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed No | 74c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…786fbacked No | 75c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077b…b0b6backed No | 75c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…3affbacked No | 75c | 13.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
- Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.