TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf3b0…786f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: MLB, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 53 out of 100; worst CS2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.14
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.69
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$7.14
Bulls vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.98
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.63
Clippers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.84
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.21
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$5.81
Rockets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.04
76ers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$2.91
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+73.5%+$21.03
Spread: Hornets (-6.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$13.51
Spurs vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.43
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+100%+$16.31
Spread: Bulls (-4.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$20.71
Spread: Hawks (-2.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.09
All 17 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Flyersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.51
Capitals vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+131.9%+$43.85
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.01
Canucks vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.84
Oilers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+92.2%+$36.12
Maple Leafs vs. Islandersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.41
Penguins vs. Devilsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$10.09
Oilers vs. Utahbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.56
Blackhawks vs. Sharksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.52
Lightning vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+101.9%+$28.34
Hurricanes vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+115.7%+$16.81
Blues vs. Ducksbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$24.02
Flyers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.07
Penguins vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$15.98
Capitals vs. Devilsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.51
Ducks vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+94.8%+$22.87
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$7.62
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$2.93
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$8.66
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$4.07
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.75
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Molde FK vs. Lillestrøm SK end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$5.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Girona FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$3.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$4.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$7.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$3.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.39
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.