TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DRXof Dplus KIA, DRX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$772,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$883,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $772,155 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Dplus KIA66c203,015$133,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,489.9155955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed DRX34c100,000$33,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,004.6964155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed DRX34c63,140$21,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,640.3311750.4%59 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed DRX35c30,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,50012759.8%76 W · 51 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Dplus KIA73c25,741$18,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,695.542,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked DRX47c24,044$11,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,807.1818961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Dplus KIA45c22,360$10,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,061.1648157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed DRX48c17,917$8,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,289.9425446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Dplus KIA62c17,122$10,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,578.9625547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked DRX40c14,517$5,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,735.561,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Dplus KIA41c14,206$5,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,878.914757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafda…0fccbacked DRX62c12,031$7,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,522.6516654.8%91 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Dplus KIA68c11,411$7,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,712.591,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Dplus KIA49c10,976$5,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,360.1669756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8804…a3a7backed DRX36c9,204$3,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,932.2915450%77 W · 77 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Dplus KIA71c8,644$6,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,140.71,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Dplus KIA66c8,470$5,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,590.1625751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed DRX31c8,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5201,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Dplus KIA1c8,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110684.4%3 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-61%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed DRX24c7,937$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,027.246453.1%34 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Dplus KIA66c7,382$4,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,874.341,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked DRX49c7,160$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,685.31,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed DRX42c6,948$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,060.11,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Dplus KIA56c6,798$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,832.7848440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Dplus KIA61c6,554$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00059558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Dplus KIA64c6,257$4,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,011.268056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Dplus KIA66c6,000$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.9982352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Dplus KIA68c5,483$3,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,707.111,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Dplus KIA67c5,446$3,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.6613355.6%74 W · 59 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed DRX30c5,241$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,664.53,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8568…bc38backed DRX31c5,010$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,436.96216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Dplus KIA65c4,636$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.121,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed Dplus KIA58c4,236$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.9625269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed Dplus KIA64c4,000$2,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,557.8121857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Dplus KIA53c3,776$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked DRX35c3,441$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.1753640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25a9…7076backed Dplus KIA62c3,330$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.616844.6%75 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked DRX40c3,000$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7891,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Dplus KIA67c2,900$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9291,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed DRX35c2,857$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.1443151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Dplus KIA67c2,835$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.191,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed DRX33c2,814$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.125236.9%93 W · 159 L+1.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…6de5backed Dplus KIA67c2,800$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.932352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed DRX30c2,606$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.9140651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked DRX27c2,541$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,86321536.7%79 W · 136 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Dplus KIA65c2,425$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.71,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Dplus KIA63c2,374$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.0249549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked DRX42c2,360$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.8726645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Dplus KIA67c2,229$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.941,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed DRX41c2,050$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.481,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Dplus KIA54c2,005$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.571,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed DRX50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.544047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked DRX23c2,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.352010%2 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked DRX39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.9914041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed DRX46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.991,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Dplus KIA72c1,993$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.7713556.3%76 W · 59 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5092…fccdbacked DRX33c1,820$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.621668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+49.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked DRX34c1,737$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.272,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed DRX27c1,700$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.9925038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed DRX29c1,625$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.121,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed DRX33c1,475$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.4420035%70 W · 130 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed DRX32c1,451$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.6119122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed DRX34c1,405$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.5344843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed DRX34c1,396$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.343947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Dplus KIA65c1,336$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.121,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed Dplus KIA72c1,284$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.0815166.2%100 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Dplus KIA77c1,273$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.8847953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed DRX38c1,256$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.676639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked DRX42c1,255$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.1818755.1%103 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a3…a824backed Dplus KIA75c1,214$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed DRX29c1,186$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.9912937.2%48 W · 81 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Dplus KIA43c1,173$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.261,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Dplus KIA50c1,153$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.3452650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed DRX28c1,138$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.9941347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked DRX36c1,122$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.8645344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Dplus KIA45c1,117$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed DRX33c1,116$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.7194134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf270…7a37backed Dplus KIA46c1,100$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5119053.3%48 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Dplus KIA65c1,100$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.981,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed DRX33c1,090$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.6332844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Dplus KIA66c1,080$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.871249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed DRX58c1,064$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.0125952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Dplus KIA72c1,050$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.3516050.6%81 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed DRX58c1,034$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.4836943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed DRX41c1,026$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.8717744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked DRX29c1,024$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.6214840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Dplus KIA56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56076953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked DRX35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65070162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc537…f385backed Dplus KIA1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10270%0 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Dplus KIA6c1,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.466297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed DRX31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6901,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed DRX33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67075738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2f…552cbacked DRX40c1,000$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.116349.7%81 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed DRX21c1,000$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7350547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d5…8ea7backed Dplus KIA65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502060%12 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed DRX28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72024147.3%114 W · 127 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed DRX34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d0…c092backed Dplus KIA13c999.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Dplus KIA77c971.14$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.422,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed DRX34c960$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.743135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.