Us Politics · resolved market
Trump imposes 200% tariff on China before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf00956d5595489c542320152b1ba7966de5826d1cf9854928891822caebf2051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 1c | 21,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 76c | 7,370$5,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.86 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 31c | 6,520$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.87 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 24c | 5,433$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,017$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes | 17c | 4,898$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 77c | 4,675$3,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 2c | 3,713$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…d355backed Yes | 1c | 3,449$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,549$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.87 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 21c | 2,401$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 30c | 1,819$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.21 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…9056backed No | 76c | 1,736$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 5c | 1,429$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 1,287$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.84 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 61c | 1,237$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.58 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 19c | 1,188$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.23 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 13c | 1,161$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 1,145$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 20c | 1,119$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.31 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 22c | 1,082$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.8 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 67c | 729.34$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.4 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…20d8backed Yes | 16c | 621.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 614.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed Yes | 3c | 612.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed No | 75c | 525.35$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…415bbacked Yes | 45c | 443.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 23c | 430.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 367$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…48a1backed No | 79c | 337.54$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…77d3backed Yes | 30c | 325$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 80c | 318.06$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…9941backed No | 80c | 313.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +72%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 16c | 284.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 19c | 268.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…3b5cbacked No | 79c | 266.32$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 23c | 265.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 60c | 261.9$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…9d95backed No | 73c | 250$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…3a69backed Yes | 35c | 223.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked Yes | 17c | 221.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 221$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 22c | 208.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…2ef1backed No | 75c | 193.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 32c | 189.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 35c | 188.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 21c | 186.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 178.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 65c | 178.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 175.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 72c | 166.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 74c | 156.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 25c | 138.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 29c | 130.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…a8bcbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -75%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…fcc2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…6e4dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fb…2c13backed Yes | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…0e3fbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…b357backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…fba0backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed Yes | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 43c | 55.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f74…c875backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…d20cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…959cbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 78c | 39.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed No | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.