TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: TEC Esports vs KeepBest Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TEC Esportsof TEC Esports, KeepBest Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,834
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,834 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked KeepBest Gaming45c12,012$5,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,424.9428143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed TEC Esports55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.1619860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0aa4…5dc8backed TEC Esports55c4,299$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.992564%16 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked KeepBest Gaming20c3,299$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.0612652.4%66 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed TEC Esports55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9916952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e38…2a58backed TEC Esports56c1,338$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.14273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked TEC Esports12c1,307$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.311,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed TEC Esports56c1,246$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.0734857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked KeepBest Gaming45c1,102$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005040%20 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed KeepBest Gaming42c1,055$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.4944342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadef…8fffbacked TEC Esports56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4402433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked TEC Esports60c823.19$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.26668.2%45 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed KeepBest Gaming45c699.99$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3155052%26 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked TEC Esports42c653.9$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.021,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked KeepBest Gaming57c609.76$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.619751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb1…b109backed KeepBest Gaming5c600$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2918254.4%99 W · 83 L+22.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed TEC Esports55c590.49$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.7225556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked KeepBest Gaming46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23086747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked TEC Esports41c482.84$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.88757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TEC Esports43c471.83$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.71,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed KeepBest Gaming44c447.21$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4215038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed TEC Esports42c444.62$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.4246326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed KeepBest Gaming38c444$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6116950.9%86 W · 83 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked TEC Esports40c426.9$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.917642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed TEC Esports26c418.78$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.1949255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed KeepBest Gaming10c367.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5960022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed KeepBest Gaming64c364.68$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.810566.7%70 W · 35 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x15fa…f856backed TEC Esports57c349.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.794165.9%27 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed KeepBest Gaming43c348.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked TEC Esports47c328.26$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.1788844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed KeepBest Gaming58c312.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0214252.8%75 W · 67 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed TEC Esports44c304.84$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0923732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked TEC Esports6c300$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28228743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed TEC Esports39c232.78$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7321454.2%116 W · 98 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3685…6d99backed TEC Esports15c229$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.654042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed KeepBest Gaming44c228.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3863447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed TEC Esports41c223$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.378345.8%38 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6daa…954abacked TEC Esports40c190.45$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.271855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed KeepBest Gaming61c188.61$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.661,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed KeepBest Gaming12c185.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2212335.8%44 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked KeepBest Gaming51c180.62$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3990733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked TEC Esports42c178.46$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.941,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed TEC Esports57c176.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5223847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed TEC Esports57c176.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4919648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3d…e430backed TEC Esports57c176.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.145269.2%36 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked KeepBest Gaming51c170.21$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6424032.1%77 W · 163 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked TEC Esports37c162.83$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.621,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked TEC Esports41c161.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.466852.9%36 W · 32 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked KeepBest Gaming33c156.73$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.651948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked TEC Esports10c152.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.161464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+83.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked TEC Esports28c144.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.770043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed TEC Esports28c142.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5293049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed TEC Esports57c140.35$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.353240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed TEC Esports52c129.78$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.294047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked TEC Esports29c129.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5340254.7%220 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TEC Esports40c127$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.291,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed TEC Esports39c123$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1499846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6add…6992backed KeepBest Gaming42c121.43$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed KeepBest Gaming9c117.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0169722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked KeepBest Gaming52c115.78$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3138548.6%187 W · 198 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked KeepBest Gaming47c113.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.771,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed KeepBest Gaming44c111.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.338349.4%41 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122a…2ccbbacked KeepBest Gaming64c111.27$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.52825%2 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-57.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed TEC Esports34c110.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8327956.6%158 W · 121 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked KeepBest Gaming44c110.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8818653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec7…4a76backed TEC Esports38c104.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.714959.7%89 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ee…3014backed TEC Esports34c102.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed KeepBest Gaming44c101$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3266650.8%338 W · 328 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked KeepBest Gaming62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc34…0953backed TEC Esports52c99.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x615a…8af2backed KeepBest Gaming52c99.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.044953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x173e…9ff4backed KeepBest Gaming42c97.22$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.836535.4%23 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9eb9…cb5dbacked KeepBest Gaming45c94.19$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.415145%68 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a1…fb15backed TEC Esports55c90.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed TEC Esports61c90.25$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4965347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked KeepBest Gaming46c86.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.366639.4%26 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba2c…fddabacked KeepBest Gaming43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39de…1b55backed TEC Esports35c79.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb15…8569backed KeepBest Gaming64c78.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501872.2%13 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed KeepBest Gaming20c78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2366438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d1e…c092backed TEC Esports46c75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.65887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick54cpaid+69%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe66…8729backed TEC Esports58c73.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x888d…c45dbacked TEC Esports56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.438744.8%39 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed KeepBest Gaming43c67.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1316041.9%67 W · 93 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf84d…a2f3backed TEC Esports57c67.63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2261…ffd1backed TEC Esports38c67.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.592755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d9…30debacked KeepBest Gaming73c65.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-71.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed KeepBest Gaming46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed TEC Esports22c62.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.711,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked TEC Esports30c62.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.277143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked KeepBest Gaming48c61.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3320051.5%103 W · 97 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac9…7050backed KeepBest Gaming25c58.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked KeepBest Gaming42c54.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9684838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x042e…9e8cbacked TEC Esports56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.573063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed TEC Esports60c49.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.754143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked KeepBest Gaming48c48.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3942051.9%218 W · 202 L-21.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09b7…5f6bbacked TEC Esports45c45.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9710061%61 W · 39 L+9.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked KeepBest Gaming49c45.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.311266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5430…fbbbbacked TEC Esports55c45.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.311754.7%64 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05e…0c23backed TEC Esports41c44.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.