TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs Galorys (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Galorysof Fluxo W7M, Galorys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,148 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbdd2…6657backed Galorys36c8,225$2,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,266.252157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Fluxo W7M64c7,647$4,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,893.8171251.7%368 W · 344 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Fluxo W7M63c7,177$4,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,521.2386758.1%504 W · 363 L+59.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2525…3dddbacked Fluxo W7M57c5,267$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,992.981631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-52.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Galorys37c5,120$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,225.61,05452.6%554 W · 500 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcd…0a69backed Galorys50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00010451%53 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Galorys36c2,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6001,44433.4%482 W · 962 L+39.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Fluxo W7M62c1,811$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.551,71053.2%909 W · 801 L+65.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Galorys45c1,643$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.512,73230.3%829 W · 1,903 L-120.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d71…b221backed Galorys50c1,594$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.86650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Fluxo W7M54c1,578$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.372,56143.2%1,107 W · 1,454 L+42.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e14…71a2backed Fluxo W7M61c1,433$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Galorys37c1,296$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.4538841.8%162 W · 226 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Galorys52c1,214$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.662,13742%897 W · 1,240 L-48.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Fluxo W7M39c1,100$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.9933737.7%127 W · 210 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Fluxo W7M42c999.99$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.762838.2%240 W · 388 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed Fluxo W7M6c792.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508445.2%38 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Galorys36c734$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.7659134.7%205 W · 386 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Galorys52c726.58$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.423,70629.5%1,093 W · 2,613 L-297.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Galorys35c665$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.2579752.7%420 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Fluxo W7M64c656.23$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9966554.1%360 W · 305 L+24.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Galorys52c626.41$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.242,29343.3%994 W · 1,299 L-70.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Galorys52c605.79$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.172,60841.2%1,075 W · 1,533 L-123.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Galorys38c573.33$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.25,95437.7%2,247 W · 3,707 L+77.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Fluxo W7M46c499.98$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9960541%248 W · 357 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Fluxo W7M62c468.98$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.7722353.8%120 W · 103 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed Galorys38c460.53$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.5352155.1%287 W · 234 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Fluxo W7M65c451.27$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.283339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Fluxo W7M50c444$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22210046%46 W · 54 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6e9…caedbacked Fluxo W7M50c440$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203868.4%26 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked Fluxo W7M50c440$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2208357.8%48 W · 35 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Galorys48c427$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.341,98442.2%838 W · 1,146 L-74.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81e3…f30abacked Fluxo W7M61c395.45$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.141758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6117…29ffbacked Fluxo W7M65c384.85$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503234.4%11 W · 21 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-37.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Fluxo W7M64c351.5$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.968253.7%44 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadeb…5850backed Galorys59c350.35$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.045954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Galorys57c335.92$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.7622148%106 W · 115 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652b…e9c9backed Galorys45c333.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.331947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Fluxo W7M3c331.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3415236.8%56 W · 96 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Galorys38c328.11$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.4335644.4%158 W · 198 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Fluxo W7M64c320.96$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4113869.6%96 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed Galorys36c315.68$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1138650.5%195 W · 191 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Fluxo W7M53c307.52$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.311,70447%801 W · 903 L-29.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Galorys47c302.57$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.768,13350.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L+169.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Galorys37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18915949.7%79 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc34…0953backed Fluxo W7M39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1178645.3%39 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed Galorys51c298$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.027346.6%34 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Galorys37c271$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.7325742.4%109 W · 148 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Galorys38c263.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.084,16550.9%2,119 W · 2,046 L+70.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Galorys48c231.35$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2312257.4%70 W · 52 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Fluxo W7M50c205.24$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6212044.2%53 W · 67 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5217…c89abacked Fluxo W7M64c201.82$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.163759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42e9…80c7backed Fluxo W7M50c195.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.566953.6%37 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0969…cd12backed Galorys41c170.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.73683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+56.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x971f…1e98backed Galorys36c162.16$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.784753.2%25 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Galorys37c160$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.81,59851.6%824 W · 774 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed Galorys32c159.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.798048.8%39 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3adf…9c7bbacked Fluxo W7M64c159.97$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3810168.3%69 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Fluxo W7M64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042555.3%235 W · 190 L+17.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Galorys34c154.55$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10276254.9%418 W · 344 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Galorys46c152.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1710553.3%56 W · 49 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked Fluxo W7M64c150$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9611938.7%46 W · 73 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90e0…6307backed Fluxo W7M64c149.44$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.643762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed Fluxo W7M38c147.35$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5642738.4%164 W · 263 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Fluxo W7M60c142.57$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.222,50243%1,077 W · 1,425 L-73.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Fluxo W7M42c142$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.965,46631.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L-400.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Galorys37c135$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0517437.4%65 W · 109 L-13.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Galorys37c131.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.164445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Fluxo W7M50c128$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6485051.8%440 W · 410 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Galorys36c124$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3625239.7%100 W · 152 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f2…d56fbacked Fluxo W7M65c123.08$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805862.1%36 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Galorys36c121.56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7763855.3%353 W · 285 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Fluxo W7M64c117.05$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.918161.7%50 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93a5…c1a9backed Galorys44c116.77$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.771643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fc…2b03backed Fluxo W7M44c112.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502343.5%10 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+82.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Galorys60c111.24$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.122749.8%113 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Galorys45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.117950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Fluxo W7M50c104$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529935.4%35 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Fluxo W7M65c99.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9943150.3%217 W · 214 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed Fluxo W7M50c97.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.785644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fc…f032backed Fluxo W7M65c96.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.611747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed Fluxo W7M33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011132.4%36 W · 75 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x042e…462ebacked Fluxo W7M72c87.92$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.181947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Fluxo W7M62c86.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.048851.1%45 W · 43 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa211…c0e1backed Galorys61c85.88$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.342055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bb…bd8ebacked Fluxo W7M37c85.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6523935.6%85 W · 154 L-19.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1273…8eddbacked Galorys36c81.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2224456.1%137 W · 107 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Fluxo W7M49c79.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.342,24147.6%1,067 W · 1,174 L-59.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0607…b344backed Fluxo W7M64c79.37$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.85664.3%36 W · 20 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+27.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Fluxo W7M50c78.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0231538.7%122 W · 193 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72e7…2b72backed Fluxo W7M64c76.77$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.133447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Fluxo W7M65c76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.480534%274 W · 531 L-51.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Galorys35c75.26$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.925,70747.2%2,694 W · 3,013 L+45.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd156…8569backed Galorys68c73.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.284077.5%31 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa005…abb1backed Fluxo W7M62c72.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9723952.7%126 W · 113 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Fluxo W7M52c70.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8923450%117 W · 117 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Fluxo W7M64c69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1651556.5%291 W · 224 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Galorys54c68.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5893645.3%424 W · 512 L+1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed Fluxo W7M53c68.21$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1521349.3%105 W · 108 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1431…94d0backed Galorys63c62.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.127650%38 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.