TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Cardinals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Bills, Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$167,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4cc3…7552backed Cardinals28c11,012$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.3625137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Bills73c9,160$6,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,475.369240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e00…14ecbacked Cardinals74c6,850$5,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,085.131050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+52.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0deb…2549backed Cardinals27c6,734$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.482842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Cardinals28c5,619$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.513751.8%71 W · 66 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Cardinals4c4,143$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5217823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a14…0762backed Cardinals26c3,894$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.610239.2%40 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc34…ff67backed Cardinals56c3,232$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.751947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0895…8273backed Bills65c3,054$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.71353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed Cardinals27c2,900$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.994634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Bills71c2,283$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.3718645.7%85 W · 101 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked Cardinals4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+51.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc109…1ad2backed Bills46c1,999$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.462931%9 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Cardinals29c1,966$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.9310246.1%47 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b9d…79eabacked Cardinals28c1,915$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Bills59c1,907$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.432438%123 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Bills73c1,885$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.039754.6%53 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Bills45c1,844$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.912843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5380…28debacked Bills71c1,600$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.247054.3%38 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Bills63c1,482$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.635036%18 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Cardinals29c1,480$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.920736.2%75 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfaf…fac7backed Bills72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Cardinals28c1,388$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.6411839%46 W · 72 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed Cardinals6c1,166$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.962114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+209.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8b5…e05cbacked Cardinals29c1,159$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.423036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Cardinals27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.974143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcede…f2f6backed Cardinals31c1,000$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3129022.2%20 W · 70 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Bills75c1,000$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2555955.9%33 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee3…1b0fbacked Cardinals26c960$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.62240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+88.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bills71c870.39$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.0536246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa987…365fbacked Bills61c819.99$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.21450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e0…fe50backed Bills60c715.02$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.9910960.6%66 W · 43 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Bills73c699.98$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1896050%30 W · 30 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21fc…f3d2backed Bills74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.681080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+118.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e7a…3746backed Bills74c639$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Bills65c408.17$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.293627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Bills73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1086848.5%33 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked Bills50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b03…65b0backed Bills56c400$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1771866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1243…fb64backed Bills68c303.12$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971580%12 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked Bills73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Cardinals27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8116439.6%65 W · 99 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6678…d4b6backed Cardinals29c297.31$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2218144.8%81 W · 100 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e1d…fcc4backed Bills74c291.47$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.78560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Cardinals12c286.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4221713.8%30 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf59e…39cfbacked Cardinals29c286.27$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.937847.4%37 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd6…27d3backed Cardinals24c281.56$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.62040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ee…9b19backed Bills49c267.01$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.181266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+57.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4975…c492backed Bills75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.673661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c3…ab95backed Cardinals25c259.91$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.351735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa672…095fbacked Cardinals20c251.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Cardinals34c250$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.525643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Bills54c242.48$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.1223351.9%121 W · 112 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec3…53a1backed Bills61c241.94$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.712250%11 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Bills72c220$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.67948.1%38 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Cardinals28c209.97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.792951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7591…9829backed Cardinals28c209.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.591947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Bills73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Bills58c173$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.639946.5%46 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e2…e186backed Cardinals26c156.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407448.6%36 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5697…cddfbacked Bills74c155.41$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.412871.4%20 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5178…f7dcbacked Bills73c150.68$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.68366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa6…db6abacked Cardinals38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.431020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf168…5725backed Bills71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.852941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Cardinals30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.533328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5c5…f001backed Cardinals55c106.57$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bba…d81fbacked Bills70c105.94$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f58…9c6abacked Bills48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52650%13 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f7…d25abacked Cardinals29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Bills54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4616139.1%63 W · 98 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ed…4d6abacked Cardinals28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0328…d834backed Cardinals28c90$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.29747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d05…ba37backed Cardinals28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c7…35a8backed Bills73c82.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.19966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5f…7a25backed Bills70c75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1173…ba78backed Cardinals27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Cardinals28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013428.4%38 W · 96 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea7…c4d0backed Bills72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.444571.1%32 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Bills73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.495034%17 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe065…d25fbacked Bills65c58.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.654443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb11…15eebacked Bills54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.561540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…1de4backed Cardinals21c54.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.711147.9%9 W · 105 L-10.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-62.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfea6…9d14backed Bills73c53.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc999…3687backed Bills59c50.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.971145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-33.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Bills60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208760.9%53 W · 34 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d97…d431backed Bills73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52781.5%22 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed Cardinals49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.57346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e39…9ca2backed Cardinals27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed Bills73c46.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6614848%71 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc465…fcfbbacked Bills73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.120758%120 W · 87 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478c…1c81backed Bills73c36.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9a…2bfcbacked Cardinals39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab3b…f0f2backed Bills75c34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.51650%8 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d43…d842backed Bills67c30.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.071154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a1…3f08backed Bills70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5712951.9%67 W · 62 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe395…3020backed Bills67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Bills74c22.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7414763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Bills72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.610738.3%41 W · 66 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed Bills54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.25341.5%22 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd795…4cc3backed Bills70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.