Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf47d7fc183f4d142e99ffb9d33a9fd72b3e63a394241650f2c3c9f87af5d224d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof MOUZ, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked MOUZ | 57c | 6,030$3,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,453.59 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…cfbabacked MOUZ | 51c | 4,574$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed MOUZ | 53c | 3,258$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.48 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Team Liquid | 48c | 3,000$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.05 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Liquid | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f33…63c8backed Team Liquid | 47c | 2,958$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Liquid | 49c | 2,764$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.76 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed MOUZ | 53c | 2,346$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed MOUZ | 49c | 1,954$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.65 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Liquid | 48c | 1,939$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.22 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Liquid | 28c | 1,787$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.35 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Team Liquid | 29c | 952.97$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.37 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…629ebacked MOUZ | 38c | 950.41$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked MOUZ | 56c | 887.32$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.51 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Team Liquid | 77c | 852.86$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Team Liquid | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Team Liquid | 45c | 734$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.17 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 40c | 567.82$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.92 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Liquid | 55c | 525.5$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.36 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Liquid | 52c | 462.57$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.48 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…a10cbacked MOUZ | 48c | 447.64$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…3d85backed MOUZ | 23c | 410.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…3cc4backed Team Liquid | 55c | 361.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Liquid | 31c | 349.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.24 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid | 47c | 301.11$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Liquid | 35c | 297.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.53 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Liquid | 44c | 296.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.09 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…7b0cbacked Team Liquid | 28c | 257.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87a…82f7backed Team Liquid | 47c | 222$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed MOUZ | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Team Liquid | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed MOUZ | 53c | 194.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed MOUZ | 74c | 185.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Liquid | 56c | 178.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…c255backed Team Liquid | 30c | 177.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.68 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Team Liquid | 43c | 177.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked MOUZ | 27c | 158.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed MOUZ | 70c | 156.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…b150backed MOUZ | 50c | 155.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…d473backed MOUZ | 65c | 153.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…73f6backed MOUZ | 16c | 130.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid | 50c | 127.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…69c9backed MOUZ | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…509ebacked Team Liquid | 41c | 109.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…e60abacked Team Liquid | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Team Liquid | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed MOUZ | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…f42fbacked Team Liquid | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ | 51c | 98.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…d34cbacked Team Liquid | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Team Liquid | 31c | 84.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked MOUZ | 34c | 78.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Team Liquid | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Liquid | 24c | 74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…1bc4backed Team Liquid | 28c | 70.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked MOUZ | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…59a5backed MOUZ | 76c | 66.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b33…c931backed MOUZ | 54c | 57.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…197ebacked Team Liquid | 36c | 54.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid | 52c | 51.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked MOUZ | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Team Liquid | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c61…470fbacked Team Liquid | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked MOUZ | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…7eabbacked MOUZ | 55c | 49.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…8f46backed MOUZ | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed MOUZ | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed MOUZ | 73c | 36.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 55c | 32.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…12a9backed Team Liquid | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 117 | 39.3%46 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed MOUZ | 70c | 18.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed MOUZ | 70c | 15.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca48…66afbacked Team Liquid | 78c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.