MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf76417e9cd7f1d4a25ac5b74e40c10476f5ea2283bbdf19c16b641ddf81f8b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 12,772$5,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,280.04 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 12,000$6,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,840 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 10,813$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,312.51 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 9,386$3,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,668.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 1,970$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.3 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 1,965$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.31 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 1,613$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.16 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 1,480$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 1,248$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.98 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 963.68$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.17 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…455cbacked San Diego Padres | 23c | 867.48$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 616$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.12 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 610.73$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 461.43$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 436.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 416$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 377.1$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.72 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 253$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 240.43$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 192.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 176.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 144.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked San Diego Padres | 22c | 130.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +140.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 127.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 105.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 102.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bfabbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 100.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 97.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 89.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 24c | 84.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 76.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 73.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 73.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 70.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 62.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 55.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1112…3104backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 55.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…14d8backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 55.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 55.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 55.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 48.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 47.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 39.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 39.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed San Diego Padres | 28c | 36.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 30.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -11.1wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 77c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 18.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.