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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Paper Rex vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Paper Rexof Paper Rex, ONSIDE GAMING
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,281 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Paper Rex74c24,957$18,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,596.1329956.5%169 W · 130 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf0c…6ab2backed ONSIDE GAMING47c12,883$6,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,052.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked ONSIDE GAMING11c11,131$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.7520850.5%105 W · 103 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1047…9036backed ONSIDE GAMING26c6,965$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked ONSIDE GAMING26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.9927037.8%102 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked ONSIDE GAMING25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.996944.9%31 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…b9e3backed ONSIDE GAMING26c3,775$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Paper Rex74c3,495$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.536157.6%208 W · 153 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd2…6657backed Paper Rex74c2,448$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.36580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Paper Rex73c2,402$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.4620761.4%127 W · 80 L+20.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed ONSIDE GAMING28c2,400$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67229045.2%131 W · 159 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Paper Rex70c2,246$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.9426854.1%145 W · 123 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed ONSIDE GAMING26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52033245.5%151 W · 181 L+52.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+38.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed ONSIDE GAMING27c1,901$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.024734%16 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed ONSIDE GAMING25c1,885$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.225446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed ONSIDE GAMING28c1,766$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked ONSIDE GAMING26c1,727$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4491346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed ONSIDE GAMING15c1,544$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.969439.4%37 W · 57 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed Paper Rex73c1,512$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.283966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed ONSIDE GAMING28c1,500$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4203033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Paper Rex61c1,413$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.611,61937.5%607 W · 1,012 L-75.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Paper Rex74c1,360$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.9826061.2%159 W · 101 L+23.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Paper Rex63c1,316$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.6315337.9%58 W · 95 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed ONSIDE GAMING28c1,242$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.8619339.9%77 W · 116 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Paper Rex78c1,218$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.8750555%278 W · 227 L+22.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8e…37d1backed Paper Rex55c1,151$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.043831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Paper Rex60c1,114$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.3915435.1%54 W · 100 L-14.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Paper Rex73c1,081$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.966665.2%43 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Paper Rex53c1,045$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.6422839.9%91 W · 137 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Paper Rex73c1,031$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.7526357%150 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Paper Rex75c975$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.751752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…202abacked Paper Rex71c942.36$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.26750.7%34 W · 33 L-8.7wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Paper Rex42c925.86$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.841,29432.4%419 W · 875 L-65.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked ONSIDE GAMING26c902$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.0535247.2%166 W · 186 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Paper Rex39c779.2$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.257138%27 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked ONSIDE GAMING29c721$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.092927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-46.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x657a…d1f4backed ONSIDE GAMING23c671.23$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.381250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed ONSIDE GAMING30c644.1$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2319447.9%93 W · 101 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Paper Rex79c610.86$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3247126.8%126 W · 345 L-26.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Paper Rex59c551$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.9816134.8%56 W · 105 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed ONSIDE GAMING26c547.25$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.49837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b9…2592backed ONSIDE GAMING24c519.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1265215.4%8 W · 44 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Paper Rex70c494.83$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed ONSIDE GAMING27c435.81$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6718139.2%71 W · 110 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc365…635cbacked Paper Rex75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1006346%29 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xde4b…1222backed ONSIDE GAMING25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004562.2%28 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+31.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcda7…af42backed Paper Rex75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005763.2%36 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…5408backed Paper Rex73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+39.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f45…e6a7backed ONSIDE GAMING26c384.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003850%19 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Paper Rex74c380$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.824464.3%157 W · 87 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked ONSIDE GAMING27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b03…d5cdbacked ONSIDE GAMING27c370.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-52.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Paper Rex74c359.53$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8852449.8%261 W · 263 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Paper Rex72c355.02$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7542747.1%201 W · 226 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed ONSIDE GAMING26c330.96$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d23…251cbacked ONSIDE GAMING26c328.33$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.69540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Paper Rex75c317.67$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0372043.3%312 W · 408 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9311…e731backed Paper Rex70c300$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Paper Rex74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7827745.5%126 W · 151 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Paper Rex39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3524034.2%82 W · 158 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc104…e684backed ONSIDE GAMING26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed ONSIDE GAMING27c299.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd4a…f91cbacked Paper Rex75c299.65$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.914100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+52%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed ONSIDE GAMING26c273.61$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.242231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Paper Rex77c268$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6423833.2%79 W · 159 L-20.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f98…cb91backed Paper Rex40c251$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Paper Rex64c248.2$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.041,43451.1%733 W · 701 L+48.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4281…1a5abacked ONSIDE GAMING27c247.96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed ONSIDE GAMING40c238.59$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7125646.9%120 W · 136 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Paper Rex60c235$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0692933.2%308 W · 621 L-91.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5275…9379backed Paper Rex40c235$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa0…ead1backed ONSIDE GAMING26c230.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x797b…26d2backed ONSIDE GAMING26c230.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+49.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ONSIDE GAMING26c223.63$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9761253.9%330 W · 282 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Paper Rex71c218.92$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8616544.8%74 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed ONSIDE GAMING27c218.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5128951.9%150 W · 139 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked ONSIDE GAMING26c216$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2930141.2%124 W · 177 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3da9backed ONSIDE GAMING15c208.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2860%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed ONSIDE GAMING27c206.3$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.715241.4%63 W · 89 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Paper Rex63c203.96$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.390744.4%403 W · 504 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Paper Rex63c203$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6283335.2%293 W · 540 L-60.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11ca…2737backed Paper Rex75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502564%16 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed ONSIDE GAMING26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525317%9 W · 44 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-54.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb978…fac0backed ONSIDE GAMING26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcfd1…cd25backed ONSIDE GAMING26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506150.8%31 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5848…56a1backed ONSIDE GAMING26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506041.7%25 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4f…a4d3backed Paper Rex74c186.53$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.781770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+26.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72da…9b77backed ONSIDE GAMING26c185.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.154141.5%17 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Paper Rex76c183.61$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.759150.8%300 W · 291 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed ONSIDE GAMING26c182.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.524250%21 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed ONSIDE GAMING27c181.81$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.098943.8%39 W · 50 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d25…0f79backed ONSIDE GAMING26c180.77$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+36.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Paper Rex51c180$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.630644.4%136 W · 170 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed Paper Rex60c180$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726040%24 W · 36 L-7.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Paper Rex75c166.58$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.334763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe6c…a2c3backed ONSIDE GAMING28c160$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Paper Rex66c152.83$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.61,51746.6%707 W · 810 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Paper Rex75c152.79$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-54.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Paper Rex58c145.21$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8741355.2%228 W · 185 L+19.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b1…8e7dbacked ONSIDE GAMING27c140.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.451442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.