TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Furman Paladins vs. UNCG Spartans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Furman Paladinsof Furman Paladins, UNCG Spartans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,436,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,091,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,436,460 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1af1…0f7bbacked Furman Paladins66c662,144$436,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225,985.262138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked UNCG Spartans34c268,312$91,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,226.2521754.8%119 W · 98 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked UNCG Spartans35c40,383$14,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,134.0916954.4%92 W · 77 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked UNCG Spartans35c34,353$12,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,067.2712754.3%69 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked UNCG Spartans35c9,424$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300.461346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked UNCG Spartans35c8,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80090645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked UNCG Spartans34c7,777$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.1813154.2%71 W · 60 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked UNCG Spartans35c7,183$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5145044%22 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed UNCG Spartans0c6,835$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8229012.1%35 W · 255 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Furman Paladins63c6,003$3,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,248.511,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked UNCG Spartans39c4,456$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75025556.1%143 W · 112 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed UNCG Spartans36c4,182$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50021248.1%102 W · 110 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked UNCG Spartans35c3,247$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.6312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked UNCG Spartans35c3,080$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed UNCG Spartans37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1109856.1%55 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+52.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Furman Paladins67c2,758$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.395,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Furman Paladins69c2,674$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.96875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed UNCG Spartans34c2,600$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.978747.1%41 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed UNCG Spartans5c2,470$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4294036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe017…52c8backed UNCG Spartans36c2,054$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed UNCG Spartans36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9939744.8%178 W · 219 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Furman Paladins63c1,498$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.42,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked UNCG Spartans41c1,200$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.743450%217 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Furman Paladins58c1,090$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.4635452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed UNCG Spartans38c999.99$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3846149.2%30 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Furman Paladins68c994.1$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.351,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Furman Paladins65c967$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.2718844.7%84 W · 104 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58ef…3413backed UNCG Spartans31c845$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked UNCG Spartans24c816.39$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4415447.4%73 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed UNCG Spartans35c799.92$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9741752.5%219 W · 198 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed UNCG Spartans35c770$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed UNCG Spartans27c700$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18955749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Furman Paladins65c698.71$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.643,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0006…87b6backed UNCG Spartans33c663$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0087…fc86backed UNCG Spartans31c658$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.98757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Furman Paladins77c646$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6474152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c0…1bccbacked UNCG Spartans33c640$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bca…7d09backed UNCG Spartans31c637$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a5…665ebacked UNCG Spartans33c630$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54da…fa4cbacked UNCG Spartans31c611$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.41757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…0753backed UNCG Spartans31c604$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.24850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef80…a935backed UNCG Spartans33c586$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked UNCG Spartans34c581.56$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde6e…5de3backed UNCG Spartans31c577$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Furman Paladins63c572.74$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.912,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f22…55f7backed Furman Paladins64c546.88$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.884544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb510…7becbacked Furman Paladins69c542$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed UNCG Spartans37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed UNCG Spartans35c527.11$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.6910437.5%39 W · 65 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked UNCG Spartans44c503.89$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.63330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked UNCG Spartans35c477.23$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.039543.2%41 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Furman Paladins60c456.7$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6845351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x131e…3343backed UNCG Spartans35c428.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked UNCG Spartans35c411.83$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.149045.6%41 W · 49 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed UNCG Spartans34c404$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.365,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Furman Paladins63c399.96$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.999771.1%69 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…a754backed UNCG Spartans30c396.05$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.41533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Furman Paladins73c383.18$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.462860.7%17 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5525…902cbacked UNCG Spartans30c375.69$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d52…816dbacked Furman Paladins69c356$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.36366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b2…afaabacked Furman Paladins67c352$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.163100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf8…3397backed UNCG Spartans29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Furman Paladins69c343.71$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.881,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x664b…00b3backed UNCG Spartans36c341.18$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3411159.5%66 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59cf…71dabacked UNCG Spartans23c334.77$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.351822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x970c…376dbacked Furman Paladins69c333$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8de…4921backed Furman Paladins67c321$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0a…69e7backed Furman Paladins67c319$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x665e…b053backed Furman Paladins67c317$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf03c…3effbacked Furman Paladins69c313$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7336…5f80backed Furman Paladins67c313$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43bd…f1c8backed Furman Paladins67c311$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Furman Paladins64c310$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x782d…12e5backed Furman Paladins69c304$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3f…3f83backed Furman Paladins69c304$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.24757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3665…155dbacked Furman Paladins69c303$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ef7…b515backed Furman Paladins69c302$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d4…7e8ebacked Furman Paladins69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed UNCG Spartans23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed UNCG Spartans31c299.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9319848%95 W · 103 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed20…0c3ebacked Furman Paladins69c298$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.38560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db2…c483backed Furman Paladins67c298$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.343100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Furman Paladins67c297.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.898845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bf9…2fc2backed Furman Paladins69c297$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f6…b4febacked Furman Paladins67c288$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.043100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e07…80d1backed UNCG Spartans35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked UNCG Spartans36c283.95$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.958750.6%44 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5995…3385backed UNCG Spartans36c280.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.995151%26 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…0726backed Furman Paladins69c280$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked UNCG Spartans35c279$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.651,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed UNCG Spartans37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d0f…f3e6backed UNCG Spartans38c270$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.611946.2%55 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ea…066ebacked UNCG Spartans35c262$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.77957%45 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed UNCG Spartans38c261.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.544035%14 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-39.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked UNCG Spartans23c259.88$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed UNCG Spartans24c254.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed UNCG Spartans36c250.47$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1919657.1%112 W · 84 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e30…bbfebacked UNCG Spartans35c235.63$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.471330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89fd…da5dbacked UNCG Spartans21c234.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.53339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Furman Paladins63c224.73$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.151,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.