TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
INTZ e-Sportsof INTZ e-Sports, RMD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6918…782bbacked RMD Gaming21c18,328$3,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,856.851,52254.7%832 W · 690 L+37.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf638…aa50backed INTZ e-Sports78c4,786$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.9580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+138.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked RMD Gaming23c3,068$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.4490350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed INTZ e-Sports80c2,242$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.7696350.2%483 W · 480 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked INTZ e-Sports80c2,171$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.767247.2%34 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked INTZ e-Sports79c2,018$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.3835835.5%127 W · 231 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked RMD Gaming21c1,745$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.441,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa28a…01c5backed RMD Gaming23c1,729$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.85955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ab…ee2bbacked INTZ e-Sports77c1,543$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.292744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…2208backed INTZ e-Sports80c1,395$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.15328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed INTZ e-Sports78c1,342$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.6611860.2%71 W · 47 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+44.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed RMD Gaming19c1,274$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.11,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed RMD Gaming22c1,159$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.432,17853.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L+61.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed RMD Gaming26c1,114$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2909635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed INTZ e-Sports80c1,090$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.481,85239.8%738 W · 1,114 L-64.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a11…ef8ebacked INTZ e-Sports78c961.02$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.846947.8%33 W · 36 L-10.2wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-30%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed INTZ e-Sports77c900$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20782953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33c…b882backed INTZ e-Sports79c882.03$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked INTZ e-Sports79c800.16$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.0371157%405 W · 306 L+40.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f2…aeb7backed INTZ e-Sports78c779.74$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3420542.4%87 W · 118 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed INTZ e-Sports80c773.64$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7344938.1%171 W · 278 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed INTZ e-Sports76c760.88$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.3928959.2%171 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba4f…b37bbacked INTZ e-Sports79c687.35$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.344055%22 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed RMD Gaming21c654.68$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.481,21343.4%527 W · 686 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed RMD Gaming21c652.09$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7422629.2%66 W · 160 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed INTZ e-Sports80c621$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.221836.7%80 W · 138 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed INTZ e-Sports80c617$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.0631761.5%195 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d9…a1b2backed INTZ e-Sports79c554$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.341450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed INTZ e-Sports79c547.88$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.425740.4%23 W · 34 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed INTZ e-Sports78c546$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.1212226.2%32 W · 90 L-11.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked INTZ e-Sports78c522.24$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9429045.5%132 W · 158 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5819…2b4fbacked RMD Gaming12c516.13$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9452149.9%260 W · 261 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked RMD Gaming20c507$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011,45343.4%630 W · 823 L+106.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked INTZ e-Sports78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked RMD Gaming16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9371…6294backed INTZ e-Sports79c495$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.951070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked INTZ e-Sports79c493$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5322142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed RMD Gaming9c450$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.57753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked RMD Gaming22c448.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.937343.4%162 W · 211 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed INTZ e-Sports78c422.05$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.882,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed INTZ e-Sports77c406.22$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4641433.6%139 W · 275 L-30.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed RMD Gaming5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056610.4%59 W · 507 L+16.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed INTZ e-Sports80c394$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.813036.2%47 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked INTZ e-Sports77c359.59$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.742,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked RMD Gaming21c335$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3511657.8%67 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked RMD Gaming21c335$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3511357.5%65 W · 48 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x207b…8118backed INTZ e-Sports79c323.35$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.91145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed RMD Gaming21c320$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.719748.5%47 W · 50 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc985…52abbacked INTZ e-Sports78c309$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed RMD Gaming21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6379745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked RMD Gaming23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6915359.5%91 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b6…5d73backed RMD Gaming21c299.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.86538.5%25 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed INTZ e-Sports78c278.7$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1134448.3%166 W · 178 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed RMD Gaming6c225.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5265043.1%280 W · 370 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf7…be9bbacked RMD Gaming23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018945%85 W · 104 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed RMD Gaming20c210.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.191,08546.2%501 W · 584 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked RMD Gaming23c208$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8435848.9%175 W · 183 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked INTZ e-Sports80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4038931.9%124 W · 265 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed INTZ e-Sports78c193.77$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7753047.2%250 W · 280 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c42…b792backed INTZ e-Sports77c188.78$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.428637.2%32 W · 54 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked RMD Gaming20c183.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0488949.6%441 W · 448 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ce…3f1dbacked RMD Gaming22c182.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019656.1%110 W · 86 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked INTZ e-Sports74c176.64$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3379342.1%334 W · 459 L-26.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1e…5bb5backed INTZ e-Sports80c170$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3411752.1%61 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked INTZ e-Sports78c155$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.157546.3%266 W · 309 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x900e…a4d3backed INTZ e-Sports77c149.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51090%9 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick63cpaid+46%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed INTZ e-Sports80c144$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2925555.7%142 W · 113 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed INTZ e-Sports78c141.03$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.035954.2%32 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8464…5348backed RMD Gaming22c136.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed RMD Gaming20c135.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0876129%221 W · 540 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a29…8cc4backed RMD Gaming12c129.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5342450.5%214 W · 210 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked RMD Gaming20c122$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.271,09147.4%517 W · 574 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x012b…7c42backed RMD Gaming21c121.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.55141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf95d…17bcbacked RMD Gaming24c114.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e4a…4efebacked RMD Gaming23c110$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.31637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked RMD Gaming20c102.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.497744.8%438 W · 539 L-30.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed INTZ e-Sports79c101.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2725660.5%155 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed RMD Gaming21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3337650%188 W · 188 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed RMD Gaming21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2146448.9%227 W · 237 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2888…f1a4backed RMD Gaming22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254932.4%178 W · 371 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed RMD Gaming23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2316462.2%102 W · 62 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked RMD Gaming21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2192450.9%470 W · 454 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed RMD Gaming22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017436.2%63 W · 111 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcede…e6c9backed INTZ e-Sports78c89.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.742259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed INTZ e-Sports80c88.06$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611,34349%658 W · 685 L-26.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed RMD Gaming23c87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.012917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c70…9168backed INTZ e-Sports77c85.3$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.626050%30 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed INTZ e-Sports80c77.78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.691,27057%724 W · 546 L+45.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked RMD Gaming23c77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7156034.8%195 W · 365 L-14.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9ebbacked INTZ e-Sports78c77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.944757.4%27 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed INTZ e-Sports78c76.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.865246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f0…fd92backed INTZ e-Sports78c74.96$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.491369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d72…a791backed INTZ e-Sports79c72.31$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3414850.7%75 W · 73 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa058…69debacked INTZ e-Sports78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.13369.7%23 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312c…ceecbacked INTZ e-Sports80c55.12$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.022142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d4…2f1ebacked INTZ e-Sports78c48.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+77.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed RMD Gaming21c48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810651.9%55 W · 51 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3238…6471backed INTZ e-Sports79c39.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3813473.9%99 W · 35 L+13.8wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+17.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98dc…e3f0backed INTZ e-Sports78c32.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0515360.1%92 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5675…d552backed INTZ e-Sports77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+42.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.