TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Lexington: James McCabe vs Dusan Lajovic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dusan Lajovicof James McCabe, Dusan Lajovic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$216,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$260,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,074 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf559…f462backed James McCabe40c22,380$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0001735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked James McCabe9c11,271$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8411,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ab…a2d1backed Dusan Lajovic47c10,589$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,589.448356.6%47 W · 36 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked James McCabe35c8,003$2,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800.86,59650.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L+259.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed James McCabe26c6,477$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.91,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe55a…ecf7backed Dusan Lajovic51c3,667$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.381650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed James McCabe8c3,260$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.821,14346.4%530 W · 613 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed James McCabe25c3,163$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.614,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Dusan Lajovic54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15036149.6%179 W · 182 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed James McCabe28c2,451$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.31,31843.6%574 W · 744 L-23.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked James McCabe46c2,053$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.5659852.7%315 W · 283 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f9…a28cbacked James McCabe27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked James McCabe45c1,784$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.944,15952.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L+66.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed James McCabe37c1,769$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.288,39642.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L-162.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c10…b6a4backed James McCabe33c1,665$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.9318947.6%90 W · 99 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Dusan Lajovic74c1,607$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.814,46667.7%3,023 W · 1,443 L+299.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Dusan Lajovic78c1,492$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.354,12644.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L+13.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eb6…8b20backed James McCabe10c1,350$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1356710.4%7 W · 60 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Dusan Lajovic52c1,100$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52643042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed James McCabe13c1,011$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.052,02546.9%950 W · 1,075 L+21.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked James McCabe47c1,005$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.2827454%148 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed James McCabe47c1,005$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.2826854.5%146 W · 122 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked James McCabe47c957.45$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4508447.6%40 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a2…704cbacked James McCabe21c952.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013918.7%26 W · 113 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Dusan Lajovic65c906.49$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.618,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed James McCabe22c840.17$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7827139.1%106 W · 165 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked James McCabe48c800$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38430335.3%107 W · 196 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed James McCabe31c798.8$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.181,00154.9%550 W · 451 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed James McCabe36c770.3$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.972,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed James McCabe49c724.09$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.811144.1%49 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Dusan Lajovic77c706$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.4664753.9%349 W · 298 L+32.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed James McCabe11c613.62$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.953,62145.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L-3.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked James McCabe8c583.9$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8622335.4%79 W · 144 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed James McCabe49c567.68$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.8366444.6%296 W · 368 L+29.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Dusan Lajovic54c452.9$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.542,21242.9%948 W · 1,264 L+34.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Dusan Lajovic49c447.05$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.563,18748.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L-46.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed James McCabe32c423.57$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6476355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x126f…739fbacked James McCabe33c412.84$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.868250%41 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Dusan Lajovic70c375.36$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.525,28856.5%2,989 W · 2,299 L+231.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed James McCabe48c340.16$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.41,63848.2%789 W · 849 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb3…f5b0backed James McCabe8c332.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2445457%259 W · 195 L+27.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd74…00a1backed James McCabe8c323.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5247858.4%279 W · 199 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdeb6…32b5backed James McCabe8c322.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4430255.6%168 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed James McCabe45c311.11$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14024858.5%145 W · 103 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab2…9decbacked James McCabe8c308.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.427551.3%141 W · 134 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3e…cd83backed James McCabe8c300.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7643352.9%229 W · 204 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a92…6b00backed James McCabe8c300.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7646251.7%239 W · 223 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Dusan Lajovic50c300.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.241,17852.4%617 W · 561 L+27.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Dusan Lajovic52c285.25$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.632,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedec…3b5fbacked James McCabe54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505352.8%28 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d24…f379backed James McCabe8c274.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6834854%188 W · 160 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed James McCabe20c265.79$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.562,23852.1%1,165 W · 1,073 L+80.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Dusan Lajovic74c257$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.521,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Dusan Lajovic79c256.07$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.491,65744.2%733 W · 924 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Dusan Lajovic51c216.44$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.051,53442.4%651 W · 883 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked James McCabe45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9039340.7%160 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed James McCabe49c187.36$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.752,40451.7%1,244 W · 1,160 L+12.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Dusan Lajovic53c184.81$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.221,69248.8%826 W · 866 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked James McCabe45c183.56$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.658539.5%231 W · 354 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed James McCabe9c174.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8795050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed James McCabe45c168.17$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.872,39438.4%920 W · 1,474 L+87.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed James McCabe49c163$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.871,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed James McCabe7c163$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.414,88238.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L-17.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked James McCabe18c155.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6372147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed James McCabe20c149.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2539648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Dusan Lajovic54c148.15$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.152,05659.5%1,224 W · 832 L-0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3679…492ebacked James McCabe8c147.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6428454.2%154 W · 130 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed James McCabe17c147.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2532329.7%96 W · 227 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked James McCabe18c146.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3220336.5%74 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed James McCabe46c142$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.327,10049.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L+107.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked James McCabe44c126.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.471,54049.2%758 W · 782 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Dusan Lajovic80c122.21$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4450268.3%343 W · 159 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked James McCabe19c117.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.23,41239.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L-11.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75b…3f43backed James McCabe47c117.02$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed James McCabe15c116.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.952,69647.9%1,292 W · 1,404 L+46.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe54…c928backed James McCabe11c113.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.949136.3%33 W · 58 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1491…69ddbacked Dusan Lajovic55c110$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.53444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed James McCabe47c109.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.71,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed James McCabe42c109.54$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.581,01336.5%370 W · 643 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Dusan Lajovic54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461,89548.1%911 W · 984 L+15.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed James McCabe51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513,80945.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L-35.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Dusan Lajovic76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.331,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe70…7533backed James McCabe47c99.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.068149.4%40 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed James McCabe48c93.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,20440.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L+28.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed James McCabe45c90.91$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.916,99839.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L-16.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4de…672abacked James McCabe45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406336.5%23 W · 40 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Dusan Lajovic76c81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1725048.8%122 W · 128 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Dusan Lajovic48c80.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.126944.9%31 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x767e…98cabacked James McCabe48c71.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5640661.3%249 W · 157 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bed…c30bbacked James McCabe29c69.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010643.4%46 W · 60 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc475…8eefbacked James McCabe52c66.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.673154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed James McCabe36c66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.769,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Dusan Lajovic45c65.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.261,84244.8%825 W · 1,017 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed James McCabe55c65.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.269030%27 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x125f…b7e8backed Dusan Lajovic57c63.16$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.169359.1%55 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed Dusan Lajovic49c63.12$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.195549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf768…7831backed James McCabe33c58.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3678957.8%456 W · 333 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked James McCabe41c58.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8310756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed James McCabe52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3064358.8%378 W · 265 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3459…caa6backed James McCabe23c56.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8826748.7%130 W · 137 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.