TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Aces vs. Mercury

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Acesof Aces, Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$982,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$990,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $982,826 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Aces39c712,422$279,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432,504.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+154.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Mercury60c87,498$52,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,809.91936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Mercury60c85,203$51,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,521.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Mercury60c78,927$47,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,622.720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Mercury60c75,000$45,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,0006735.8%24 W · 43 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Mercury62c56,000$34,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,720650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…8bf2backed Mercury62c55,000$34,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,097.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Mercury60c50,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0003351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Mercury60c42,500$25,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,65010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Mercury62c31,000$19,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,100.2220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Mercury61c24,595$14,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,974.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Mercury65c23,893$15,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,503.451030%3 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick63cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Mercury61c20,000$12,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Mercury60c15,205$9,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,140.191163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Mercury36c12,624$4,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,522.544438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Mercury62c11,111$6,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,888.822365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury24c10,665$2,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.4821440.7%87 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Mercury60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+87.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Mercury27c8,987$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Mercury54c8,779$4,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,775.1260%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Mercury61c8,432$5,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,144.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29bf…25b0backed Aces63c8,000$5,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,963.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mercury27c7,698$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.7819142.4%81 W · 110 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mercury35c7,652$2,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.151,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Mercury54c6,685$3,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mercury61c6,500$3,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,964.9914450.7%73 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Mercury37c5,871$2,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Mercury61c5,803$3,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,557.293961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Aces37c5,570$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,490.196154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Mercury62c5,347$3,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,315.143246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Mercury16c5,265$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.3915246.7%71 W · 81 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Aces64c5,249$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Aces38c5,113$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.7823931.8%76 W · 163 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mercury61c5,015$3,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Aces36c5,000$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,180250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Mercury62c4,828$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Aces35c4,418$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,871.347162%44 W · 27 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+35.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Mercury61c4,224$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.73450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Mercury66c3,921$2,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,587.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x625a…681ebacked Aces37c3,920$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Mercury61c3,750$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,268.671952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Mercury62c3,655$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.16637.9%25 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Aces57c3,518$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.683938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a9d…dc00backed Aces38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a0…6b5abacked Mercury62c3,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury60c2,605$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.217753.2%41 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Mercury61c2,481$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.684835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury30c2,275$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68631847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Aces40c2,125$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.144346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Aces48c2,043$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.723528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f0c…18b7backed Mercury65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c3…0230backed Aces51c1,975$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7869…9480backed Mercury65c1,923$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Mercury63c1,788$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd3…adf8backed Aces40c1,515$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+134.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Aces35c1,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9751323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…5bd1backed Mercury52c1,233$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Aces36c1,200$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7686631.8%21 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Mercury38c1,174$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b77…449fbacked Mercury63c1,109$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x883f…aad2backed Mercury43c1,094$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Aces36c1,079$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Aces39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6104100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+84.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb313…f17bbacked Mercury6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Aces35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6501225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedae…584fbacked Aces35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3339…1db6backed Mercury7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Mercury2c953.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Mercury26c917$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.68825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Mercury61c889$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.29683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+76%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Mercury61c841$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Mercury62c806.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Aces38c799.99$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.992740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf341…d026backed Mercury63c793.65$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Aces40c757.7$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Mercury3c750$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mercury28c723.93$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.52951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Mercury61c657.79$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+92.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury61c656$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.057851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Aces71c645.21$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.214100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Aces67c643.39$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Mercury63c634.92$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Aces36c612.93$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.031233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Mercury63c604.62$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.911163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Mercury65c572.31$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f91…40adbacked Mercury49c565.18$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…8eaabacked Mercury5c517.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Aces48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Mercury62c467$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.545042%21 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Aces49c465$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.15683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+95.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb75d…9d01backed Aces45c324.44$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Mercury61c314.31$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.733056.7%17 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x863c…3395backed Mercury64c312.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Mercury60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1809642.7%41 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked Mercury60c299.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-66.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Mercury4c280$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Aces36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7827232.7%89 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mercury45c263.69$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…5862backed Aces39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Aces39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4117541.1%72 W · 103 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.