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La Liga · resolved market

FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,872 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over5c8,430$400 inLost-$400.3790543.4%393 W · 512 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over12c4,494$546 inLost-$546.386434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over6c3,001$190 inLost-$190.383,54642.7%1,514 W · 2,032 L+28.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x123f…8d5fbacked Over17c2,237$380 inLost-$380.2380%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over5c1,431$72 inLost-$71.648548.9%237 W · 248 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over15c1,186$178 inLost-$177.919943.2%86 W · 113 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e7…9461backed Over11c929.95$105 inLost-$104.561233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024b…64acbacked Over16c596.94$96 inLost-$95.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae3…c20ebacked Over4c392.85$16 inLost-$15.76190%0 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over9c339.99$32 inLost-$32.344838.4%172 W · 276 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over14c333$47 inLost-$46.6213641.9%57 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6937…fc64backed Over13c320.46$42 inLost-$41.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over17c315.88$54 inLost-$53.72913.8%4 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6ab…fb13backed Over8c208$17 inLost-$16.641464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over15c167.05$25 inLost-$25.063630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over16c142.85$23 inLost-$22.8631631.6%100 W · 216 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over11c110.23$12 inLost-$12.194,84647%2,279 W · 2,567 L-17.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Over18c99$18 inLost-$17.823756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.