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La Liga · resolved market

Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Barcelonaof FC Barcelona, Athletic Club
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$800,501
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$923,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $800,501 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3eb0…6a68backed Athletic Club41c178,453$72,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,799.771729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked FC Barcelona59c172,795$101,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,845.813727%10 W · 27 L-6.9wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-45.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed FC Barcelona60c107,898$65,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,897.841752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Athletic Club41c78,455$32,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,188.586434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked FC Barcelona59c68,979$40,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,398.2219943.2%86 W · 113 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Athletic Club41c62,958$26,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,089.771,13832.4%369 W · 769 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974c…3269backed Athletic Club40c27,826$11,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,130.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed FC Barcelona59c20,000$11,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletic Club42c18,457$7,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,721.251,26751.3%650 W · 617 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Athletic Club40c18,070$7,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,240.0421944.3%97 W · 122 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletic Club41c17,447$7,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,132.155662.5%35 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a95…3a16backed FC Barcelona59c17,009$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,009.021283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked FC Barcelona59c15,988$9,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,588.568852.3%46 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1660…5598backed FC Barcelona66c15,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Athletic Club52c12,167$6,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,327.0915641%64 W · 92 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Athletic Club41c11,935$4,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,893.359939.4%39 W · 60 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Athletic Club41c11,649$4,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,746.781,08648.2%523 W · 563 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a7…4a1dbacked Athletic Club44c11,057$4,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,824.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked FC Barcelona60c10,941$6,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,376.321154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+65.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletic Club41c10,320$4,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,240.663,54642.7%1,514 W · 2,032 L+28.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed FC Barcelona60c9,328$5,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,731.1222539.6%89 W · 136 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed FC Barcelona53c9,273$4,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,346.9264839.5%256 W · 392 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletic Club41c9,064$3,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,686.0970356.2%395 W · 308 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Athletic Club53c8,536$4,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,524.052450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fae…b849backed FC Barcelona60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.331457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FC Barcelona60c7,987$4,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,211.9231631.6%100 W · 216 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298b…f406backed FC Barcelona54c7,700$4,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5801181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.36per pick46cpaid+98.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Athletic Club40c7,500$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9924444.7%109 W · 135 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed FC Barcelona58c7,130$4,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,979.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Athletic Club34c6,040$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.942227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Athletic Club41c5,932$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,412.6918146.4%84 W · 97 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed FC Barcelona60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed FC Barcelona53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.994562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Athletic Club34c4,950$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.8311055.5%61 W · 49 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70a6…a2ebbacked Athletic Club43c4,449$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912.661233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked FC Barcelona60c4,191$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.951353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed FC Barcelona76c4,045$3,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.3623859.2%141 W · 97 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+52.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed FC Barcelona54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8403847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked Athletic Club40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Athletic Club46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84011853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb132…6b5ebacked Athletic Club64c3,840$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletic Club3c3,195$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5516234%55 W · 107 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletic Club41c2,962$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.7573549.7%365 W · 370 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffbe…82cebacked FC Barcelona59c2,800$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Athletic Club40c2,678$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.882,38148.3%1,151 W · 1,230 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c2…8775backed FC Barcelona59c2,675$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3a…e974backed Athletic Club11c2,292$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.128541.2%35 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-15.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FC Barcelona59c2,138$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.8754338.5%209 W · 334 L+2.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Athletic Club40c2,128$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.161,45845.1%658 W · 800 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked FC Barcelona57c1,750$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.53043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed FC Barcelona60c1,674$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.6513641.9%57 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked FC Barcelona60c1,640$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.01666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf12d…0fddbacked FC Barcelona60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6004037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Athletic Club31c1,500$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.7219426.3%51 W · 143 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletic Club41c1,486$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.9490543.4%393 W · 512 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c7…eca3backed FC Barcelona60c1,454$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.657100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed FC Barcelona60c1,442$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.93754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed FC Barcelona48c1,431$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.7222344.4%99 W · 124 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed FC Barcelona58c1,421$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.195149%25 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed FC Barcelona58c1,372$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.351030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed FC Barcelona60c1,333$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Athletic Club40c1,264$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.451931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Athletic Club40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50080250.2%403 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Athletic Club44c1,130$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.3174249.9%370 W · 372 L+2.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Athletic Club2c1,095$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3263332.2%204 W · 429 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbbc…5921backed FC Barcelona59c1,017$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Athletic Club40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40051851.9%269 W · 249 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed FC Barcelona59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4103554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Athletic Club43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43020322.2%45 W · 158 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked FC Barcelona67c970.15$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.154100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ab…d7a7backed FC Barcelona56c893.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.681118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-65.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7525…fd3cbacked Athletic Club42c847.63$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.431225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-54.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4228…464dbacked FC Barcelona60c815.28$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7997…5e4bbacked FC Barcelona59c808$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.285100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c99…8b23backed FC Barcelona63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.652378.3%18 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe04c…1c0cbacked FC Barcelona58c777.58$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee4…8c98backed FC Barcelona55c770.36$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.367949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa600…0fc5backed FC Barcelona60c745.88$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.351855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FC Barcelona57c744.3$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.410837%40 W · 68 L-10.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f0d…a40fbacked FC Barcelona52c715.38$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e8d…b0e1backed Athletic Club41c665.45$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11f2…5d62backed FC Barcelona52c653.85$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed FC Barcelona66c619.45$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.612157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9817…5ff2backed FC Barcelona49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.241338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Athletic Club41c596.75$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.674542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Athletic Club41c592.99$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.171,63551.6%844 W · 791 L-7.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked FC Barcelona57c556.78$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.317641.5%73 W · 103 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1002…1ef5backed FC Barcelona59c531.16$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.783435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34c…2e29backed FC Barcelona57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.321957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed FC Barcelona60c510.2$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.083865.8%25 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed Athletic Club40c506$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.292334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f1…dc7cbacked FC Barcelona58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Athletic Club42c480$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.66552.3%34 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72f2…1de0backed FC Barcelona52c411.23$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.39580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1366…4f56backed FC Barcelona50c410$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+86.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed FC Barcelona59c409.15$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.7553149.5%263 W · 268 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed FC Barcelona51c401.96$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.96875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked FC Barcelona49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2049025.6%23 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Athletic Club42c399.99$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.999841.8%41 W · 57 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Athletic Club44c399.98$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9913562.2%84 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.