Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a7b0ce9324a3bb2716013e89fcda5729c480f2b503c3c98db944d0ff4457817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 2,164$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 2,156$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.43 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 50c | 1,715$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.79 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,477$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.18 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 1,182$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 700$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.67 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 39c | 587$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.71 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 584.15$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.55 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 533.15$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 43c | 448.39$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 429.43$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 418$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 30c | 359.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 359.5$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 268$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 31c | 259.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…73c3backed Yes | 43c | 249.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 50c | 248.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 54c | 235.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 228$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 216.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 197.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 189.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 164.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 67c | 146.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 53c | 139.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 54c | 118$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 115.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 49c | 108$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 45c | 102.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 55c | 97.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…7682backed No | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 45c | 95.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 87.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 81.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 59c | 80.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 76.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 50c | 69.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…2302backed No | 62c | 64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 61.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 37c | 61.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 55c | 52.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 54c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 53c | 49.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 47.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 43.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 41.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 39.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 50c | 39.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 39.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 37.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 46c | 37.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 35.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 43c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3434…9fa7backed No | 33c | 34.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 40c | 33.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 46c | 32.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…83b0backed No | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 30.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 42c | 30.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 69c | 29.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 52c | 28.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 26.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 51c | 25.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 54c | 22.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…01d9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.