TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs ACROBATS (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, ACROBATS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$233,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,791 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked ACROBATS46c152,555$70,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,846.7742440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed 100 Thieves53c134,058$71,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,367.247363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed 100 Thieves56c6,772$3,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.436650%33 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed 100 Thieves52c6,669$3,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,227.454233.3%14 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed ACROBATS50c3,871$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.4672453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed ACROBATS49c3,376$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.046243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fdd…d385backed 100 Thieves52c3,000$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4504346.5%20 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked 100 Thieves51c2,912$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.7875056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed 100 Thieves50c2,148$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.5712752%66 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed ACROBATS47c2,110$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.5136742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…30d5backed 100 Thieves60c2,109$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.756246.8%29 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed ACROBATS44c1,672$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.924,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked 100 Thieves51c1,617$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.3436253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ACROBATS46c1,347$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.267,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe705…f910backed 100 Thieves54c1,258$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.593751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ACROBATS46c1,245$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.866,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 100 Thieves51c1,204$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.045,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed ACROBATS48c1,200$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57629858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab3…6adfbacked ACROBATS32c1,198$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.554151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked 100 Thieves53c1,103$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.373452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed 100 Thieves56c1,090$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.7718752.4%98 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked 100 Thieves50c1,067$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.881244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed ACROBATS50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016149.1%79 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9c…3624backed 100 Thieves54c900.46$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff6…394ebacked 100 Thieves51c792.39$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.621540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed 100 Thieves56c779.8$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.0533044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed 100 Thieves53c704.65$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.6315954.7%87 W · 72 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked 100 Thieves55c684.84$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.157948.1%38 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed ACROBATS22c652.75$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9730527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed 100 Thieves51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29476546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed 100 Thieves55c583.8$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.7131444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked ACROBATS46c580.56$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.0653545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed 100 Thieves56c534.66$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.3821941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed ACROBATS50c534.59$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.8755950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked 100 Thieves55c530.73$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.839753.6%52 W · 45 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0b…5662backed 100 Thieves54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3839…18b6backed ACROBATS30c469.48$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.792433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 100 Thieves55c460$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2075,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…d073backed 100 Thieves60c436.94$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.057136.6%26 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x143d…2602backed 100 Thieves54c419.81$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1112557.6%72 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed ACROBATS42c401.3$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6978348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed ACROBATS47c387.5$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.1315133.1%50 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked ACROBATS27c359.27$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.611,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed 100 Thieves55c354.95$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3720952.6%110 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed 100 Thieves56c347.64$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.968535.3%30 W · 55 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked 100 Thieves61c342.8$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.353,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5664backed 100 Thieves49c329.41$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1688242.7%35 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed 100 Thieves50c323.59$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.892937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed 100 Thieves52c320.88$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.0215141.7%63 W · 88 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4092…f145backed 100 Thieves56c308.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.535650%28 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked 100 Thieves54c297.3$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7858343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed ACROBATS49c295.7$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4398856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed 100 Thieves50c294.84$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.411247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+16.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed ACROBATS41c293.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0250340.2%202 W · 301 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked 100 Thieves55c291.83$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13135449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked 100 Thieves51c291.12$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.62475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+75.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed ACROBATS38c285.04$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2430254.3%164 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed 100 Thieves59c270.15$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6791743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed ACROBATS45c270$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.564552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked 100 Thieves60c258.21$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7248948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked ACROBATS32c228.38$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9219030.5%58 W · 132 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7fc…381abacked 100 Thieves50c225.04$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.523727%10 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked 100 Thieves44c219.64$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12381751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ACROBATS48c208.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.154,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed 100 Thieves53c205.36$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5259343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2409…215ebacked ACROBATS48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8812746.5%59 W · 68 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc98…5308backed 100 Thieves55c194.6$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.571136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x537d…615bbacked 100 Thieves53c194.36$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.353053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked 100 Thieves53c194.36$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3518549.2%91 W · 94 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed 100 Thieves51c190.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2564854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa12b…79e9backed 100 Thieves65c189.34$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6510…36d1backed ACROBATS19c187$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.187321.9%16 W · 57 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked ACROBATS51c182.35$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9317055.3%94 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaba0…7df4backed 100 Thieves56c175.28$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf0…e384backed 100 Thieves56c173.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0433153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed 100 Thieves58c169.27$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8160358.5%353 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ACROBATS44c168.15$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.575,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed 100 Thieves53c165.21$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6518352.5%96 W · 87 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked 100 Thieves56c164.54$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.419849%97 W · 101 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fd…d60dbacked ACROBATS50c161.95$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.58554.1%46 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 100 Thieves46c154.37$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.972,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed 100 Thieves46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8133452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed ACROBATS32c149.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9669635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed 100 Thieves66c149.07$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.128750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed 100 Thieves50c148.37$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.172552%13 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+40.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ACROBATS15c148$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.533,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked 100 Thieves52c147.83$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4691648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked ACROBATS17c141.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.512,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked 100 Thieves60c124.52$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1429555.3%163 W · 132 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 100 Thieves55c123.02$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.542,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked 100 Thieves49c113.64$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.460953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed ACROBATS47c110$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.71,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed ACROBATS37c110$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.964439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed 100 Thieves60c105.73$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2951755.9%289 W · 228 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed ACROBATS45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f4…59eabacked ACROBATS10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010428.8%30 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+99.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed ACROBATS34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3433241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1812…0db6backed ACROBATS30c97.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.313333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62d6…54e8backed 100 Thieves56c97.36$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.846855.9%38 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked ACROBATS50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.571951%367 W · 352 L+28.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.