TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Solaryof Karmine Corp Blue, Solary
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa759…1119backed Solary55c15,135$8,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,778.0611367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Karmine Corp Blue32c11,011$3,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,523.6196048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Solary68c4,412$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.769761.9%60 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Karmine Corp Blue5c4,381$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.391,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Karmine Corp Blue37c4,056$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.2953255.1%293 W · 239 L+23.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Karmine Corp Blue39c3,320$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.562722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Solary68c3,282$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.1789347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Karmine Corp Blue8c3,145$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.1212036.7%44 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Solary66c3,045$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.9524554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Solary62c2,977$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.3427957.7%161 W · 118 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Karmine Corp Blue35c2,900$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.192,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed Karmine Corp Blue38c2,569$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.5334558.3%201 W · 144 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Solary68c2,541$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.31,48250%741 W · 741 L+65.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Solary62c2,500$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.767642.1%32 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Karmine Corp Blue33c2,250$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.481,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Karmine Corp Blue39c2,140$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.7234340.5%139 W · 204 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Solary63c1,928$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.81,53654.8%842 W · 694 L+75.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Karmine Corp Blue27c1,778$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.6334558.6%202 W · 143 L+16.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked Solary57c1,653$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.523549.4%116 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd391…b109backed Karmine Corp Blue33c1,606$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53013946%64 W · 75 L-18.0wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-21.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Karmine Corp Blue43c1,600$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.0944851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Karmine Corp Blue35c1,548$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.6725244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Solary67c1,548$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.682,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Solary68c1,546$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.726647%31 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Karmine Corp Blue30c1,500$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.62,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Karmine Corp Blue29c1,373$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.2269041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Karmine Corp Blue33c1,300$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42914637.7%55 W · 91 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Solary67c1,100$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.9988950.5%449 W · 440 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Karmine Corp Blue33c1,027$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.425433.5%85 W · 169 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Karmine Corp Blue35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Karmine Corp Blue36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Karmine Corp Blue34c987.26$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.672,33640.4%943 W · 1,393 L-58.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b7…fbcfbacked Solary66c900.7$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.2427367%183 W · 90 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Solary67c896.68$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.681,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked Solary55c849.18$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.5435659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Karmine Corp Blue2c819.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.71487.4%11 W · 137 L+0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Karmine Corp Blue44c814.66$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.4534835.3%123 W · 225 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Karmine Corp Blue38c805.8$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.193554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed Solary72c800$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22616451.2%84 W · 80 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb283…4501backed Karmine Corp Blue29c799.05$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5210029%29 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e0…413fbacked Karmine Corp Blue38c763.15$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.357062.9%44 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Solary64c671.86$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.622,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a9a…72e7backed Solary68c598.9$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6523946%110 W · 129 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…238bbacked Karmine Corp Blue34c585.29$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19922741%93 W · 134 L+1.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Karmine Corp Blue48c583.26$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.292,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Karmine Corp Blue36c467.39$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.331,05323.4%246 W · 807 L-76.9wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Karmine Corp Blue37c466.43$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5898956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Solary69c466.3$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.211,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f4…c390backed Karmine Corp Blue37c449.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.59736.1%35 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Solary68c446.9$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9365359.4%388 W · 265 L+70.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed Karmine Corp Blue35c436.56$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.066028.3%17 W · 43 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-40%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed Solary61c430$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4217961.5%110 W · 69 L+15.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed Karmine Corp Blue37c416.16$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.340955.5%227 W · 182 L+23.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f16…284ebacked Solary70c406.04$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.269266.3%61 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Solary63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14861143.5%266 W · 345 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde4b…1222backed Karmine Corp Blue34c399.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1366232.3%20 W · 42 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a9d…6c84backed Karmine Corp Blue43c391.58$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2234438.7%133 W · 211 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Karmine Corp Blue39c370.4$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.512,90338.5%1,119 W · 1,784 L-117.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Solary68c367.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6565063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked Solary73c359.16$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1926551.7%137 W · 128 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Solary68c342.92$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1134448.3%166 W · 178 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed Karmine Corp Blue30c334$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.196452.7%508 W · 456 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed Solary65c308.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9248763.2%308 W · 179 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Karmine Corp Blue33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Karmine Corp Blue35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10567115.4%103 W · 568 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Solary50c299.97$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.9953829.4%158 W · 380 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed Karmine Corp Blue7c285.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055010.4%57 W · 493 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Karmine Corp Blue14c268.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.091,60517.5%281 W · 1,324 L-244.2wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed Solary76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1677246.2%357 W · 415 L+18.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Karmine Corp Blue31c249.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.531736.9%117 W · 200 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Karmine Corp Blue34c240$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.635642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Solary59c239.97$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.481,81839.9%726 W · 1,092 L-59.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Solary69c229.72$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1524446.3%113 W · 131 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Karmine Corp Blue28c225.31$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0517839.3%70 W · 108 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88f2…a6c1backed Solary67c224.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9821254.2%115 W · 97 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Solary67c223.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8710335%36 W · 67 L-14.1wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Solary68c220.6$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5923146.8%108 W · 123 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a02…576dbacked Karmine Corp Blue33c220$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.63342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4151…60e7backed Solary71c215.82$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.53825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Karmine Corp Blue30c212.2$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.551,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5819…2b4fbacked Karmine Corp Blue37c205.08$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8849850.2%250 W · 248 L+31.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Karmine Corp Blue29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Solary67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6662649.8%312 W · 314 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Karmine Corp Blue33c188.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.431,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Karmine Corp Blue36c174$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1866843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Karmine Corp Blue37c172.54$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.331,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Karmine Corp Blue53c166.88$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.811,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Solary61c164.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8866947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Solary57c161.74$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3133457.8%193 W · 141 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Solary68c158.96$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8748951.5%252 W · 237 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Solary65c153.87$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.321,34931.1%420 W · 929 L-128.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Solary66c151.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6847453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Karmine Corp Blue33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5056949.4%281 W · 288 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd85e…5ba6backed Karmine Corp Blue34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-41.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Karmine Corp Blue35c144.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.441,95230.6%597 W · 1,355 L-166.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Solary62c144$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2846362.6%290 W · 173 L-1.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Solary53c143.75$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.281,04239.6%413 W · 629 L-73.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Solary68c140.38$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6722043.6%96 W · 124 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Karmine Corp Blue36c138.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9536151.8%187 W · 174 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3bc…46f8backed Solary44c135.02$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6826940.9%110 W · 159 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.