UFC · resolved market
Dana White's Contender Series: Alik Lorenz vs. Mahamed Aly (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf2252e4090ea056d1aec3816ae46bf9f9266d26b8ac27fa0c428133062f4c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alik Lorenzof Alik Lorenz, Mahamed Aly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Alik Lorenz | 24c | 24,699$5,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,723.49 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Mahamed Aly | 76c | 9,801$7,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,409 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…a2a7backed Alik Lorenz | 5c | 7,395$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,009.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,450.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mahamed Aly | 75c | 7,187$5,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,376.84 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Mahamed Aly | 76c | 3,500$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,660 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Alik Lorenz | 19c | 1,185$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.83 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Alik Lorenz | 26c | 1,163$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.81 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Mahamed Aly | 76c | 1,056$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.11 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Mahamed Aly | 34c | 1,023$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.97 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Mahamed Aly | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.13 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Mahamed Aly | 76c | 995.71$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.74 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Alik Lorenz | 73c | 795.07$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.36 | 161 | 56.5%91 W · 70 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Mahamed Aly | 73c | 778.42$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Alik Lorenz | 41c | 737.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mahamed Aly | 12c | 600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Alik Lorenz | 24c | 598.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.42 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Alik Lorenz | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mahamed Aly | 37c | 470.19$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.71 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Mahamed Aly | 78c | 449.15$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.12 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…196abacked Alik Lorenz | 69c | 400$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Mahamed Aly | 57c | 397.73$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Mahamed Aly | 76c | 394.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Alik Lorenz | 56c | 348.96$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Alik Lorenz | 59c | 336.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.75 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Mahamed Aly | 50c | 323.23$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.62 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Mahamed Aly | 75c | 321.44$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Alik Lorenz | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Alik Lorenz | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Alik Lorenz | 48c | 294.24$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.24 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…7aa2backed Mahamed Aly | 76c | 263.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Mahamed Aly | 76c | 252.97$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.26 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Mahamed Aly | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…b07abacked Alik Lorenz | 23c | 219.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Mahamed Aly | 25c | 208.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…3a49backed Alik Lorenz | 26c | 205$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca50…7691backed Mahamed Aly | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Alik Lorenz | 32c | 160.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Alik Lorenz | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…86fdbacked Alik Lorenz | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 251 | 60.2%151 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Alik Lorenz | 24c | 126.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Mahamed Aly | 77c | 121.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Alik Lorenz | 29c | 103.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…e05ebacked Mahamed Aly | 74c | 103$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…bfb8backed Mahamed Aly | 74c | 101.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Alik Lorenz | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Alik Lorenz | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Mahamed Aly | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6c…5679backed Mahamed Aly | 75c | 96.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Mahamed Aly | 73c | 87.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Alik Lorenz | 30c | 83.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…c07cbacked Alik Lorenz | 25c | 82.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Alik Lorenz | 33c | 79.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…4715backed Mahamed Aly | 75c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8527…9a7fbacked Mahamed Aly | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Alik Lorenz | 20c | 64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked Mahamed Aly | 51c | 59.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Mahamed Aly | 61c | 48.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Alik Lorenz | 70c | 42.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…b6b9backed Alik Lorenz | 36c | 41.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a69…8caabacked Alik Lorenz | 58c | 41.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…95e5backed Mahamed Aly | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…9c36backed Mahamed Aly | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…a3fbbacked Mahamed Aly | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked Mahamed Aly | 71c | 38.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…573ebacked Alik Lorenz | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…4fd8backed Mahamed Aly | 68c | 33.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Alik Lorenz | 33c | 31.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Mahamed Aly | 75c | 29.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Mahamed Aly | 72c | 29.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Mahamed Aly | 75c | 25.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Mahamed Aly | 74c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2da…ce6abacked Mahamed Aly | 73c | 20.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Mahamed Aly | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Mahamed Aly | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…db4bbacked Mahamed Aly | 74c | 17.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Mahamed Aly | 77c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dana White's Contender Series: Alik Lorenz vs. Mahamed Aly (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.