MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cff640dbffd23a4d400757e73f15ac369ddfbc7cc27ef5cda0798f6ede3217b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 4,647$2,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,696.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 41c | 4,248$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,486.06 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 3,031$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 54c | 2,320$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.83 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 56c | 2,078$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.72 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Under | 44c | 2,000$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 43c | 1,900$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.89 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 54c | 1,884$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.83 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 39c | 1,843$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.86 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 1,839$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.78 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 54c | 1,629$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.66 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,559$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 46c | 1,262$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.93 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 1,236$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 55c | 1,102$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.43 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.84 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 1,024$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.48 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 652.48$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 48c | 584.39$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.88 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…bcf8backed Under | 63c | 565$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 44c | 551.08$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 62c | 537.76$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.47 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 60c | 482$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.25 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 44c | 364.96$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.42 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked Under | 61c | 326.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 43c | 319$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.96 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 44c | 306.07$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 47c | 276$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 48c | 227.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 42c | 207.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 48c | 195.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 48c | 181.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Over | 55c | 163.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 119 | 61.3%73 W · 46 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 42c | 150.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 51c | 148.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 141.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 48c | 135.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 128.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Over | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 117.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 47c | 105.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 59c | 95.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 51c | 89.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 45c | 89.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Over | 55c | 88.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 59c | 88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Over | 54c | 73.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 57c | 69.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 38c | 63.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 60.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 51c | 46.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 59c | 46.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…5616backed Under | 61c | 43.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 205 | 39.5%81 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Under | 48c | 41.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 57c | 41.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…02f0backed Over | 51c | 21.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 60c | 20.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.