MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f004a892396304a9bc9f33b2d08e98dfc31aeeccd112161199f14a72f09f625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 46,240$24,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,732.89 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 20,413$9,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,488.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 6,794$3,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,194.06 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 6,168$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,898.98 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 5,175$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 2,217$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75f…ddcbbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 1,858$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.31 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 47c | 1,460$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.49 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 1,355$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 1,059$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.95 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…cc4bbacked Under | 53c | 773.5$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 770$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 674.42$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.81 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 47c | 626.97$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.68 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 43c | 605$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.15 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 44c | 600$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 551.43$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 491.18$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 47c | 313$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 59c | 302.44$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 57c | 253.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…766dbacked Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 34c | 195.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 43c | 192$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 165.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 160.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 51c | 156.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 47c | 156.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 57c | 117.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 49c | 113.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 110.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 63c | 108$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 63c | 107.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 38c | 101.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…6576backed Over | 40c | 99.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 56c | 99.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 47c | 97.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 49c | 92.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 60c | 91.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 56c | 76.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Over | 43c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 612 | 50.5%309 W · 303 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 34c | 68.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…4883backed Under | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 283 | 47.3%134 W · 149 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 63c | 54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 63c | 54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 34c | 53.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 47c | 53.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 47c | 53.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 55c | 46.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Under | 60c | 45.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 47c | 41.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7dc9backed Under | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 47c | 39.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 47c | 38.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Under | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 278 | 52.2%145 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Under | 51c | 28.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 54c | 22.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 70c | 19.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.