NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d063d604084788d0a0a87c7f1048853ddd0d147e36179aec8ec61271f9e9b04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Jaguars, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $404,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $449,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Titans | 49c | 295,878$145,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145,521.79 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Jaguars | 51c | 161,355$82,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,063.99 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Jaguars | 50c | 113,037$56,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,518.41 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Jaguars | 52c | 40,000$20,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,200 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Titans | 49c | 12,314$5,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,987.6 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Titans | 50c | 11,156$5,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,577.9 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Titans | 56c | 5,631$3,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,153.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars | 53c | 4,909$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.44 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Titans | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Titans | 47c | 3,510$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.9 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jaguars | 53c | 3,437$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.5 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Titans | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 52c | 2,693$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.5 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Titans | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Jaguars | 52c | 2,080$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.4 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Titans | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Jaguars | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Jaguars | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0b5fbacked Jaguars | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars | 44c | 1,522$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.32 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Jaguars | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Jaguars | 55c | 613.69$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.69 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Titans | 45c | 610$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Jaguars | 55c | 601.37$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.64 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Titans | 48c | 561.46$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Titans | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Titans | 45c | 393.24$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.96 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Titans | 49c | 381.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Titans | 45c | 360.9$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Titans | 48c | 320$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…86b2backed Jaguars | 52c | 286.65$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Jaguars | 54c | 280.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars | 44c | 266.17$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.05 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Titans | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Jaguars | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Jaguars | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Titans | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Jaguars | 52c | 158.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Jaguars | 52c | 157.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Titans | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Jaguars | 52c | 132.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Titans | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Jaguars | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…642dbacked Jaguars | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Jaguars | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Jaguars | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Jaguars | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Jaguars | 52c | 99.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Jaguars | 50c | 87.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Jaguars | 51c | 77.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Titans | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Jaguars | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…ea4abacked Jaguars | 52c | 32.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +71%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Titans | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…79f6backed Jaguars | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aff…821abacked Jaguars | 53c | 20.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Jaguars | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-12.5)this page
- First Touchdown: Brenton StrangeNo Touchdown won
- Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-11.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-13.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-17.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-9.5)Jaguars won
- Titans vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Titans vs. Jaguars: O/U 43.5Over won
- Titans vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Over won
- Titans vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Over won
- Titans vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Over won
- Titans vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Titans vs. Jaguars: O/U 49.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.