NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db72f0bef4434b87a1d32f8920033c4b30482ebb5f21d91238303786ae3ff08

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Bucks, Jazz
Resolved: Mar 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,509 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0d13…92f3backed Jazz	47c	2,384$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,263.34	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Bucks	52c	2,266$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,178.31	139	46.8%65 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz	56c	2,172$1,217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$954.64	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	53c	2,101$1,118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,118.06	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Bucks	19c	2,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	544	43%234 W · 310 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	46c	1,038$477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560.83	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Jazz	47c	951.06$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.06	714	49.3%352 W · 362 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa2e…b357backed Bucks	54c	843.59$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.5	74	33.8%25 W · 49 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Bucks	55c	750$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.5	423	48.5%205 W · 218 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Bucks	54c	704.92$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.66	208	46.6%97 W · 111 L	-9.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x987b…3d00backed Bucks	56c	698.59$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.21	165	55.8%92 W · 73 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz	45c	591$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.11	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Bucks	57c	527.56$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	131	54.2%71 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Bucks	55c	463.7$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.03	214	46.7%100 W · 114 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz	44c	448.31$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.99	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks	55c	365.51$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.03	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x362a…8683backed Bucks	55c	349.09$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Jazz	45c	314$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.7	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bucks	17c	219.93$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Jazz	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	248	49.6%123 W · 125 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Jazz	45c	157$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.35	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Jazz	46c	155$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.38	775	49.2%381 W · 394 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Bucks	8c	150.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	184	38.6%71 W · 113 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Bucks	56c	140.35$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.6	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Bucks	55c	127.27$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Bucks	56c	126.68$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.94	159	49.7%79 W · 80 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Jazz	47c	104$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.12	451	51.4%232 W · 219 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Jazz	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	223	36.8%82 W · 141 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Bucks	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	302	24.8%75 W · 227 L	+15.5wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Jazz	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	92	55.4%51 W · 41 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Jazz	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Jazz	47c	95.74$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.74	447	47%210 W · 237 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed Jazz	48c	94.89$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.34	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Bucks	54c	93.41$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.73	1,888	37.3%704 W · 1,184 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bucks	52c	91.66$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.84	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Bucks	55c	90$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Jazz	45c	78.51$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.18	340	47.1%160 W · 180 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Jazz	45c	78.51$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.18	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c08…af98backed Jazz	47c	72.34$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.34	326	54.3%177 W · 149 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Jazz	47c	71$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.63	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c0f…f9c0backed Bucks	54c	63.66$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.37	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Bucks	51c	54.19$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.64	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Jazz	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	270	50%135 W · 135 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27d3…0764backed Bucks	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Jazz	44c	46.77$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.06	584	50.2%293 W · 291 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Jazz	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	138	52.2%72 W · 66 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a90…700bbacked Jazz	49c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.25	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Bucks	53c	40.75$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Bucks	53c	38.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d75…12a6backed Jazz	47c	38.04$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.16	92	58.7%54 W · 38 L	+5.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbf9…7560backed Bucks	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Jazz	46c	35.92$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.4	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc57…ce71backed Bucks	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	96	55.2%53 W · 43 L	+6.8wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4015…c724backed Bucks	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd18b…876dbacked Jazz	45c	33.33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.33	113	56.6%64 W · 49 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bucks	55c	33.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Jazz	47c	32.8$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.39	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Jazz	46c	31.4$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.96	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Bucks	55c	30.91$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Jazz	45c	28.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.94	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13f4…48c6backed Bucks	55c	27.51$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	138	52.9%73 W · 65 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ab…2c2fbacked Bucks	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-4.8wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd9fa…b505backed Bucks	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	112	44.6%50 W · 62 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Jazz	49c	26.86$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.71	293	51.9%152 W · 141 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bucks	55c	26.82$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.73	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Jazz	46c	25.58$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.81	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Bucks	55c	24.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	492	49.8%245 W · 247 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked Jazz	47c	23.4$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.4	134	47%63 W · 71 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Jazz	44c	23.33$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.06	293	44.4%130 W · 163 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Jazz	46c	22.71$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	421	53%223 W · 198 L	+23.3wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9dc…038ebacked Jazz	46c	21.74$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.74	65	50.8%33 W · 32 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x648e…0fd3backed Bucks	54c	21.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02d…c0bbbacked Bucks	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	115	49.6%57 W · 58 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4861…4fcabacked Jazz	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	148	58.1%86 W · 62 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Bucks	53c	19.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57e6…7c61backed Bucks	55c	18.31$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Bucks (-4.5)this page
1H Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Jazz won
Brice Sensabaugh: Points O/U 22.5No won
Brice Sensabaugh: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Bucks vs. JazzJazz won
Bucks vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
Bucks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
Bucks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
Bucks vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5Under won
Bucks vs. Jazz: O/U 229.5Under won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 18.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Kyle Filipowski: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Myles Turner: Points O/U 11.5No won
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Jazz won
Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Jazz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bucks (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event