TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,516
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,516 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed82…8fcbbacked Yes78c1,694$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.42475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed No11c1,310$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.1835635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e3e…713abacked No16c999.97$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.981172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+109.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed No11c913.53$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.2525125.5%64 W · 187 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…ad18backed No21c891.11$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.98944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+309.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes79c719.98$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.191957.9%11 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick71cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x484a…c6e0backed No26c667.73$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+283.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79f7…ef5bbacked No16c650.59$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+1,203.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1693…974ebacked Yes79c649.92$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.442080%16 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes72c634.59$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.61926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No9c612.85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.9576037.6%286 W · 474 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+219.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…e003backed No23c581.22$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+330.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked No20c567.51$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.962231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No12c555$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+215.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed No19c464.52$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+1,113.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12dc…5c52backed No23c438.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.57633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+211.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77dd…fc49backed No18c396.41$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.41944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.31per pick14cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa1ab…2e0fbacked No38c380$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fe…55ecbacked Yes62c380$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed No20c357.44$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.184040%16 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e24…70a6backed No30c348.63$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.991827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+170%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes12c319$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.81130%0 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xada9…57e1backed No21c309.52$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x916d…308abacked No24c300.88$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No9c300$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2734211.9%5 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-47.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed No21c296.24$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.9934237.1%127 W · 215 L+21.4wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No21c282.13$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.881717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c250.24$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1429024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2209…cb80backed Yes55c240$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f3…a1a4backed No24c203.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.471435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+80.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb102…c73dbacked No24c201.39$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.287731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No14c200$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0321861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a50…9e46backed No20c199.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No17c198.89$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.85038%19 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35a4…b3d5backed No27c181.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+263.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No17c181.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.163324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No18c178.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.382123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+165.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed No21c166.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e5…2244backed No13c156.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.15608.3%5 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed9b…e8acbacked No35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes76c150$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf94f…78d7backed Yes65c150$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid+212.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed No14c139.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3730215.2%46 W · 256 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No16c134.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.842520%5 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes17c130.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.654912.2%6 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4497…8c81backed Yes73c127.92$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.38557.3%4 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick13cpaid+0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8677…9296backed Yes79c125.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa44a…034abacked Yes80c125.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+108.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1756…c84dbacked Yes79c108.45$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.172166.7%14 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033a…6f76backed No19c107.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+435.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3799…cd36backed No19c107.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.03837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+128.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cdd…7274backed No16c104.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+762%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc86a…1f5fbacked No22c103.06$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+351%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf973…2593backed No21c101.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.04425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd4…d37abacked No21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed No21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79560%3 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick15cpaid+717.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x77d9…941abacked No20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+163%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes79c95.3$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9720331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac1c…002dbacked No23c90.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c0…7c00backed No23c87.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+339.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22f2…6329backed No27c74.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+273.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcad8…7cd2backed No17c70.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.733253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No22c70.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.02425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x092f…252ebacked No29c68.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+243.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe336…44dcbacked No20c68.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+647.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5054…bdccbacked No21c67.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b97…36b7backed Yes76c65.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508772.4%63 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No21c65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.352948.3%14 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+74.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes79c63.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No22c59.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+358.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf30…8cb4backed Yes75c53.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a15…cf1abacked No21c52.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes80c51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.81910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00ae…ae32backed No24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3810721.5%23 W · 84 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid0%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes79c49.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9557838.9%225 W · 353 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked No35c43.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick36cpaid+51.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa933…4e84backed Yes80c42.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0472…c62fbacked Yes58c39.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.782454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3661…e41bbacked Yes80c33.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick80cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes66c31.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52070%14 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x253c…aa0bbacked Yes80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes79c25.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207358.9%43 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…1d69backed Yes79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x183b…54f0backed Yes80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf195…43efbacked Yes78c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid+23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfe…5e39backed Yes80c13.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca4…c1b0backed Yes80c13.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.